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Page added on December 11, 2012
Exxon Forecasts 35% Global Energy-Demand Growth by 2040
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), the world’s biggest oil producer by market value, raised its long-term global energy-demand growth estimate to 35 percent from 32 percent as expanding populations in Africa and India use more electricity.
Worldwide consumption of fuels to run power plants, trucks, trains and airplanes will climb to the equivalent of 705 quadrillion British thermal units by 2040, compared with 522 quadrillion in 2010, the base year for Exxon’s forecasters, the Irving, Texas-based company said in a report today.
Rising electricity use will be the primary driver of demand growth, accounting for more than half the increase, Exxon said. As the world’s population expands to about 9 billion in 2040, more households and businesses will need power, according to the report.
North America is expected to become a net exporter of oil and fuels derived from crude by around 2030, Exxon said. Worldwide, oil demand will increase by 26 percent though 2040, while natural gas and hydropower use will rise by 65 percent and 66 percent, respectively.
Nuclear power consumption will more than double globally through 2040 and coal use will decline by 2 percent, Exxon said. Demand for renewable energy sources, excluding biomass and waste, will more than quadruple, outpacing growth for all other energy sources, according to the report.
Exxon revises its long-term energy-demand outlook annually to guide long-term investment decisions.
5 Comments on "Exxon Forecasts 35% Global Energy-Demand Growth by 2040"
BillT on Wed, 12th Dec 2012 1:36 am
Dreams of the uninformed only. Demand? How will they be able to pay for it? The West is in a depression. One that will not end. Paychecks are shrinking and all costs are rising. The next trade may be for a bicycle, not a new gas guzzler.
Investors are dropping like flies so there will be more propaganda pieces to try to keep them in the game. The odds are now against big wins in petroleum.
GregT on Wed, 12th Dec 2012 3:13 am
“North America is expected to become a net exporter of oil and fuels derived from crude by around 2030”
Maybe, if our economies entirely collapse and we have a massive die off.
Arthur on Wed, 12th Dec 2012 12:51 pm
There is no end to ‘demand’ or need. More interesting is what the geological constraints are and what prices consumers will be able to pay for the oil by 2040. What these people are doing is simply extrapolating demand on the forecast of continued population growth. More realistic seems to me a liquid supply plateau until early 2020’s, against ever higher prices, forcing people to save energy, then gas takes over and peak carbon fuel around 2030. Hopefully the decline can be compensated by renewables, starting from now.
BillT on Wed, 12th Dec 2012 1:44 pm
Arthur, there are no ‘renewables’ that do not rely on oil at some stage of their life cycle. None.
I personally hope it all collapses soon so there is something left for my grand kids to survive on. Bring on $400 oil, $25 gas and all that that will mean. Collapse this consuming culture we have become addicted to now while there is still something left.
Arthur on Wed, 12th Dec 2012 2:08 pm
Bill, even if that were the case, which I deny, than you can resort to biofuels as the basis for the energy setup of the future, to produce the panels and turbines. The energy produced by turbines and panels can be used for conventional applications like lighting, electronics, fridge and maybe even a limited form of transport.
I agree with Bill that external shocks, causing a ‘limited economic collapse’ that would cause a radical halt to consumer culture but not a fallback into Mad Max barbarism could be beneficial for the future of mankind. But this can only be hoped for, not organized. Such a shock could be a ‘limited war in the Gulf’. Again, I am not advocating this, because there is no garantee that such a conflict would not deteriorate into a world war.