Peak Oil is You
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Page added on December 10, 2012
Thoughts For Engineering Majors And Graduates Inspired By Ambrose Evans Pritchard And The ASPO-USA Peak Oil Conference
NOTE: This piece was originally an email to my two engineering major sons.
Having been to the recent ASPO-USA Peak Oil conference in Austin TX, I conclude:
(a) Natural gas prices in the USA are unsustainably low and will rise, but even with the rise the US will have a major advantage in industries that depend heavily on natural gas for at least a decade. These industries are a good place to be if you care about serving your country and being able to raise a family. The USA’s oil and gas production will have booms and busts but are also a good place to be if you are a young engineer.
(b) The world-wide oil industry (and the USA’s shale-oil in particular) can produce marginally more oil provided their customers can pay more for it than they are currently paying. There’s no collapse coming, but there is a slow-burn for at least a decade as oil prices continue to rise and choke off economic growth. I expect roughly flat oil production with virtually non-existent economic growth for the developed world for the forseeable future. Jeff Rubin is the first guy I’ve heard suggesting this (about 4 years ago) and he is being proved right.
—
MontyHigh, www.worldofwallstreet.us
P.S., Pritchard’s piece is fairly long and not exactly an easy read, but was worth my effort.
P.P.S., I myself am looking for the right opportunity to “get longer” natural gas (and to a lesser extent crude oil) futures dated a few years out. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE. THIS IS NOT ADVICE.
4 Comments on "Thoughts For Engineering Majors And Graduates Inspired By Ambrose Evans Pritchard And The ASPO-USA Peak Oil Conference"
Rick on Mon, 10th Dec 2012 9:06 pm
BS article. Good luck suckers.
BillT on Tue, 11th Dec 2012 1:54 am
Rick, you got it right! This is a sucker ad for big gas. It sure is full of it! ^_^
This is more proof of how desperate the industry is to keep investors from fleeing in droves. An e-mail to engineering sons…lol. If they believe this BS, they are not smart enough to be engineers. And if you think that it will take 10 years before it all goes to hell around here, I think you are dreaming. We are in a depression and climate change is making anything risky. Chances are good that nothing will be better in 10 years anywhere in the world. We shall see.
James on Tue, 11th Dec 2012 2:57 am
As a former geology technician for a major university. I have seen students who majored in petroleum geology graduate in groves until the prospecting and drilling cease to exist here in the U.S. Then, they became unemployed because the geologists were cheaper overseas. The so called oil and gas boom in the U.S. is a short term phenomena that will fizzle out in 5 – 10 years and we will be right back where we were 5 years ago. Remember the oil crisis in the 70s? It spurred all kinds of projects in Natural gas until oil became plentiful, not from the U.S. but from the Middle East. As our short term bonanza with fracking continues, there will be a day in 5 – 10 years, when we realize that this bonanza wasn’t as great as we thought. Then, we will be right back to getting our oil from other countries. By the way, if we are going to get so much oil that we will be exporting it, why then do we care about what happens in the Middle East? We don’t need them anymore. So, why are we sending our boys over there to be killed if we don’t need their oil?
BillT on Tue, 11th Dec 2012 6:38 am
Good questions James. It’s because the powers that be know that the fraking BS is just another bubble, soon to pop. Problem is, not many, if any, countries will have any oil to export in 10 years.