Global oil production up in 2012 as reserves estimates rise again

Global production and reserves of crude oil and lease condensate both increased in 2012, according to Oil & Gas Journal’s annual Worldwide Production report. Reserves of natural gas increased slightly between Jan. 1, 2012, and Jan. 1, 2013.

OGJ estimates average worldwide oil production in 2012 at 75.72 million b/d, up 2.9% from the 2011 rate.

Top producers, their 2012 production averages, and year-to-year changes are Russia, 10.45 million b/d, up 1.2%; Saudi Arabia, 9.96 million b/d, up 6.6%; the US, 6.33 million b/d, up 11.9%; China, 4.08 million b/d, up fractionally; and Canada, 3.095 million b/d, up 6.6%. Evident in those numbers is the surging importance of production from unconventional resources—shales and other low-permeability formations in the US and Canada and oil sands and heavy oil in the latter.

Total average production by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in 2012 is up 5% at 32.1 million b/d. Besides that of Saudi Arabia, large increases have come from Abu Dhabi (6.1%), Iraq (8.4%), Kuwait (10.1%), and Libya, where production rebounded to an annual average 1.375 million b/d after having been slashed by internal war in 2011.

Those and other OPEC gains help offset a 14.7% decline in Iranian production related to international sanctions toughened in 2012. Iran has lost its position as the world’s fifth largest producer to Canada.

Nigerian production also has declined in 2012 despite the start-up in April of deepwater Usan field, which is expected to produce 180,000 b/d. Flooding later in the year cut Nigerian production by an estimated 500,000 b/d.

Qatar’s oil production this year is down 8.4%, Algeria’s 5.9%. Angolan production is up 7.1%, and Venezuelan output is up 1%.

Non-OPEC oil output

The production surges by the US and Canada have helped push non-OPEC production up by 1.4% in 2012. Other notable non-OPEC production gains have come from Brazil (0.7%) and Colombia (2.4%).

Major decreases in non-OPEC production come from Azerbaijan (4.7%), Kazakhstan (2.7%), Syria (46.6%), Yemen (11.2%), and the North Sea. Maintenance outages took their tolls in fields off Norway in 2012, where production declined by 7.5%, and the UK, down 7.3%. UK activity stalled this year in the wake of a tax increase in 2011, but the government has been working with the industry to accommodate taxation to work in mature fields, deep water, and other challenging environments.

Production in Mexico is down 0.6% this year.

Reserves up

OGJ’s new estimate for global oil reserves of 1.6 trillion bbl is up 115 billion bbl from the number published at this time last year (OGJ, Dec. 5, 2011, p. 26).

Where possible, OGJ uses data from its surveys and published official estimates. Most reserves estimates come from governments, which control most reserves. Government reserves estimates frequently are influenced by geopolitical pressures.

OGJ subscribers can download, free of charge, OGJ Worldwide Report 2011 tables from the OGJ Online home page at www.ogjonline.com. Click “OGJ Subscriber Surveys,” then “Worldwide Production” or “Worldwide Refining.” Historical spreadsheets of data presented here are available for purchase from PennEnergy Research. Visit www.ogjonline.com, and click the “Research” tab.

Two big reserves increases this year are from countries where geopolitical controversy is routine: Iran and Venezuela. Having moved large volumes of extra-heavy crude oil into the reserves classification in recent years, Venezuela claims 298 billion bbl. Iran has raised its reserves estimate to 154.6 billion bbl.

For Russia, which doesn’t disclose country reserves, estimates vary greatly. OGJ has been conservative in its estimates for Russia but this year increases its estimate by one-third for the world’s top producing country to 80 billion bbl. Although many giant Russian fields are mature, the country is considered underexplored, underdeveloped, and amenable to improved production efficiency with the growing application of modern technology. Moreover, a push into the Russian Arctic offshore is set to begin.

For the US, OGJ relies on what had been annual reserves estimates by the Energy Information Administration. Because of budget cuts, however, EIA hasn’t updated its reserves estimates since 2010. The estimate here therefore is unchanged.

For China, where exploration is active on a number of fronts, the oil reserves estimate is up about 5 billion bbl at 25.6 billion bbl.

The new estimate for worldwide gas reserves is 6.79 quadrillion cu ft.

Click here to download the PDF of the “Worldwide look at reserves and production”

9 Comments on "Global oil production up in 2012 as reserves estimates rise again"

BillT on Mon, 3rd Dec 2012 12:22 pm 



Figures lie and only the future will prove them right or wrong. But, somehow, I doubt that there was any real increase.

Arthur on Mon, 3rd Dec 2012 12:37 pm 



Someday the oil-age is going to end, likely in this century, but truth be told, I do not expect collapse in this decade any longer. (Slow) decline, likely, increasing prices yes, but supply collapse, no. Financial collapse and/or war are potentially the most destabilizing factors in the short and midterm. Economic decline has the advantage of demand destruction, postponing depletion.

James A. Hellams on Mon, 3rd Dec 2012 3:05 pm 



The estimated worldwide oil production is, according to this article, 75.72 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.9%. This is from 2011 to 2012. This is cited as evidence that we are increasing our oil production; and have no worries about the imminent collapse of the oil supply. How very wrong this is.

The figures the OGJ cite are actually confirming that we HAVE PASSED the peak of worldwide oil production; and ARE ON THE WAY DOWN!

I remember reading articles on this peak oil site that cited that we were producing oil at the worldwide rate of 82 to 86 MILLION BARRELS per day!

Thanks, OGJ, you have unwittingly just confirmed that we believers in peak oil are right on target with what we say. That we have passed the peak of worldwide oil production; and are on the irreversible downward slope!

poaecdotcom on Mon, 3rd Dec 2012 3:24 pm 



I agree with Arthur that Financial collapse is the most likely in the short term .

But I would argue that an fianicial collapse will be devastating for the oil extraction business.

The EROEI of the barrel of oil on the margin TODAY (Tar sands/Tight oil) is insufficient to support a complex enough society to extract that barrel of oil.

Therefore, we will not have the NET ENERGY to rebuild a society (out of the financial collapse) complex enough to go after this high hanging fruit.

Probably best to be a year early than a day late preparing for this one…..

Go local

GregT on Mon, 3rd Dec 2012 3:55 pm 



Financial recession, depression and collapse are exactly what was expected to occur when the undulating plateau of peak oil was reached.

Whether the downward slope will be a bunny hill or a cliff has yet to be determined. Economics will play a very important role in how much oil will be left in the ground untapped.

BillT on Tue, 4th Dec 2012 1:28 am 



Yes, economics and maybe atomics will determine the rate of decline. As poaecdotcom said, the high hanging fruit may remain on the tree forever. To deny the very good possibility of collapse is to be in denial even if you do believe that we have actually passed the peak of production. To think we will just ease into a lower lifestyle is another dream. Too many variables that say different.

SilentRunning on Tue, 4th Dec 2012 5:19 am 



I remember reading that we need over 100 million barrels per day by the end of this decade to meet demand in the developing world. Where is all this oil going to come from – with demand ever swelling from an economy that demands endless exponential growth forever? Even if you could show that the entire planet was made of oil with a thin film of rock covering – it will not meet the demands of endless exponential growth.

Hugh Culliton on Tue, 4th Dec 2012 2:21 pm 



Good news, comrades! Our sugar ration has been increased from 4 cups to 3! Even the water tastes better under the new regime!

I love these BS peak oil-is-a-fantasy pieces.

Sharpie on Tue, 4th Dec 2012 3:42 pm 



So global oil production is up in 2012? That’s the funniest thing, considering I just read this article not a few weeks ago:

http://peakoil.com/production/oil-supply-continues-flat-in-2012/

Who are we to believe?