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Page added on November 12, 2012
U.S. the New Saudi Arabia? Peak Oilers Scoff
The U.S. is set to increase oil production so much that it will overtake Saudi Arabia and become the world’s biggest producer by around 2017, the International Energy Agency said today.
The reaction from “peak oil” theorists? Not a chance. They continue to argue that the surge in U.S. production coming from shale oil and shale gas is a flash in the pan. Before long, they say, U.S. output will start falling again—as will global output. The price of oil will skyrocket and the industrial economy will be brought to its knees, they argue.
I first reached Kjell Aleklett in Sweden. He’s president of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and a physics professor at Uppsala University. Aleklett acknowledged that peak oil theorists didn’t predict the U.S. output increase, but he said the jump doesn’t undermine their main case. “We were wrong that it was not possible for the U.S. [production] to swing back again. But we don’t know how high the swing will be,” Aleklett said.
“The shale production we are talking about now relies on thousands of wells drilled every year. If the drilling capacity should go down, or for some reason it becomes too expensive, then the production will go down very fast,” Aleklett said.
What’s more, he said, the U.S. success is not being duplicated in other countries. In densely populated Europe, Aleklett said, the best shale happens to be beneath the city of Paris, making it off-limits to production (unless the Eiffel Tower is converted into a production platform).
Aleklett also pointed out that the U.S. Energy Department’s own outlook contradicts that of the Paris-based International Energy Agency. In 2035, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, imports of crude oil, liquid fuels, and other petroleum, plus natural gas will still total about 24 quadrillion BTUs a year, nearly triple the level of exports.
Mark your calendar, by the way: Aleklett said the next meeting of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil is in Austin, Tex., on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1.
I then reached Jeremy Leggett, a British solar energy entrepreneur who is chairman of a company called Solarcentury and who writes about energy issues, including peak oil. His talking points were more polished than Aleklett’s, but he hit the same arguments. Like the Swede, he said he doesn’t think production from unconventional sources such as shale is sustainable for long.
“On the massive balance of probabilities, not withstanding the U.S. phenomenon, there’s going to be a descent of global production and much higher prices, by 2015 at the latest,” Leggett said.
I asked him if it’s harder for him to persuade people now than it was before the surprising resurgence in U.S. output. Yes, he said. “It’s a comfortable narrative, and people are desperate to believe comfortable narratives. It has set back the perception of the risk.” Dependence on oil and gas, said Leggett, “will blow up in our face.”
8 Comments on "U.S. the New Saudi Arabia? Peak Oilers Scoff"
Rick on Tue, 13th Nov 2012 12:19 am
Whoever is behind this news, that the US will be the new S.A., is marketing crook, tool at best.
Maybe it’s Karl Rove, and we know he’s a scum bag crook. And the ass Mitt is gone.
Seriously, this is propaganda. And why, because of EROEI, but also it’s just NOT true. Not to mention the environmental issues. Not to mention, all this does is to continue the status quo, and doesn’t solve any long-term problems.
Stupid Americans!
I’m sure JHK, Greer, and Heinberg would say WTF!
This is really an insult to all critical peak oil thinkers, and critical thinkers in general.
Time will prove all these scum bags to be wrong, and liars.
DMyers on Tue, 13th Nov 2012 12:28 am
These oil shale, shale oil, tar sand plays are not the answer to peak oil. They are symptoms of peak oil.
New technology has been our savior, and it is saving us now, once again – not. The peak oilers are correct. Intensity which leads to rapid decline is, in essence, unsustainable.
Newfie on Tue, 13th Nov 2012 1:18 am
TIght oil production will increase, peak and decline, just like conventional oil production. So the big picture is still the same, maybe delayed by five or ten years. And in that time greenhouse gases will increase and climate change will become an even greater problem.
actioncjackson on Tue, 13th Nov 2012 1:46 am
We’re headed towards end game, far past the point of no return. It would seem we’re going to take as much of the earth with us as we can before we destroy ourselves. It makes me hate and I have no sympathy anymore.
BillT on Tue, 13th Nov 2012 2:04 am
“…people are desperate to believe comfortable narratives…”
That says it all. The Petroholics are still deep in denial.
vaseline2008 on Tue, 13th Nov 2012 4:52 am
“In densely populated Europe, Aleklett said, the best shale happens to be beneath the city of Paris, making it off-limits to production (unless the Eiffel Tower is converted into a production platform).”
Well, they moved The London Bridge to Havasu Arizona…just saying…haha.
jaki on Tue, 13th Nov 2012 9:11 am
bwaha ha ha ha ha….
Arthur on Tue, 13th Nov 2012 2:26 pm
“We were wrong that it was not possible for the U.S. [production] to swing back again. But we don’t know how high the swing will be,” Aleklett said.
Basically Aleklett admits that he knows nothing.
“The shale production we are talking about now relies on thousands of wells drilled every year. If the drilling capacity should go down, or for some reason it becomes too expensive, then the production will go down very fast,” Aleklett said.
If you look at maps concerning unconventional oil/gas then you see that large parts of the US have potential for extraction.
http://endofcrudeoil.blogspot.nl/2012/03/untapped-unconventional-oil-can-meet.html
So possibly hundreds of thousands of wells could be drilled, resulting in decades of oil, ignoring the environmental consequences, which could be desastrous. But humans are not particularily good at avoiding desasters.