Can the US survive Peak Oil?

9 Comments on "Can the US survive Peak Oil?"

TIKIMAN on Wed, 3rd Oct 2012 12:04 am 



Oil has already peaked. The reason is it’s not at $150+ a barrel is because the world is in a depression. It’s a double edged sword really…

BillT on Wed, 3rd Oct 2012 1:49 am 



The Us as we have known it cannot and will not survive. We are already on the downward slope of contraction and nothing will prevent it from continuing until we reach a sustainable level. Think 3rd world. It may be slowed by bubbles of ‘hope’ but they will not last long.

As for a world war event, forget it. We have maybe 6 million barrels per day of domestic production or about 1/3 of our total needs. Not to mention that most of our ‘stuff’ is imported from the very countries that we would be fighting against. All of that imported energy in the form of ‘stuff’ would not be possible in today’s Us.

No, the American Dream is dead. Growth is over. We will slide back to the 5% of the world’s resources that we are entitled to as 5% of the world’s population instead of the 30+% that we are used to. The pain is coming…

Goat1080 on Wed, 3rd Oct 2012 3:44 am 



Actually, WWII has already happened, as has peak (conventional) oil

peakgrowth on Wed, 3rd Oct 2012 4:09 am 



Nice work here but I would have loved to see the net export data as a third graph line. Quite insightful for the middle east countries especially…

The stage is now set for the ‘mad scramble’ to be one of the billion survivors that can live sustainably under the carrying capacity of ‘oiless mother earth’.

Good luck!!

Mike in Calif. on Wed, 3rd Oct 2012 8:07 am 



Let me offer the peak oil incorrect and the politically incorrect reasons that the US will not survive.

In material terms, the US is actually well-equipped to deal with peak oil and even a WWII-like, protracted conflict. It has appreciable oil output which could be stretched through rationing. It has abundant coal reserves which could further augment through liquefaction. Properly supplied, it has massive agricultural surplus. It has copious human reserves. It has unmatched tech know-how. It has a worn down, but revivable, industrial base.

If faced with a WWII-style war, it ~could~ coordinate a transition to wartime economy. Industrial ramp up would be long and painful though. But it could be done if the will was there and the result would be a military juggernaut. But…

The will, the national unity is not there. Another Pearl Harbor will not elicit the same response today. A retaliation? Sure. But a world war? It would end (for the US) in a breakdown of federal authority before the war was seriously prosecuted.

Now the politcally incorrect. The United States is not united. It has deep, serious divisions. The very identity “American” has been undefined. In the 1950’s, the US was 90% white and viewed itself in the European, specifically British, heritage.

But this Euro-mutt identity has been undermined from two directions. One, mass immigration combined with anti-assimilation has turned the country into an ethnic mish-mash that makes the Balkans look vanilla. Two, education and media have turned historical perspective upside down. Columbus was a criminal. Washington an evil slave owner. We have the “noble savage” and a list of victims which grows with each rewrite. The new national identity is everyone is “American”, so no one is.

And then there is ideological division between left and right, regardless of ethnicities, which becomes deeper with each “election.” No matter what direction a government tries, there will be a pissed off wing – either of which, if militant, could cripple the country. For all its apparent power, the central government is permanently handicapped, an imposing house of cards.

Peak Oil is a contributing factor every where. But the flavor is different for each country. For the US, its systems will fail long before resources can become a ~primary~ cause of collapse.

BillT on Wed, 3rd Oct 2012 9:41 am 



Mike, I agree totally. Thanks!

peakgrowth on Wed, 3rd Oct 2012 1:53 pm 



I agree with social commentary on the USA, we are very different from pre 60’s. You only have to witness an Olympics over here and note that ALOT of people are more juiced up about their ‘home’ countries….

To your last sentence though… the systems you refer to are under monumental strain today, EVEN with the import of 8-9 million barrels of oil EVERY DAY. Cut that essential RESOURCE import significantly and the cracks become spread quickly to collapse (think just in time inventory, stranded commuters, empty gas stations etc).
Energy is KEY and the reduction in available energy in a complex , debt based, growth based society would, I contest, be a PRIMARY cause of collapse.

We must implement a POWER DOWN strategy at every level, starting at HOME…

Beery on Wed, 3rd Oct 2012 5:04 pm 



Columbus had his men systematically hunt innocent people down and cripple or murder them. How is that not criminal?

Mike in Calif. on Thu, 4th Oct 2012 4:00 am 



Thanks for making my point, Beery. Precisely which law was violated? Come now, leftists strive to leverage relativism to deconstruct except when it’s inconvenient. That’s right, it’s YOUR moral judgment and YOUR emphasis. Most everyone else remembers him for voyages of discovery.

Any way, who ~hasn’t~ systematically hunted people or their possessions? It’s everywhere you look, but not always bloody. It takes a perspective and associated narrative to make one form distasteful and others “normal.”