Israelis prepares for war with Iran

Larissa, a 66-year-old manager at an Israeli investment company, waited in line last week at a Tel Aviv youth centre to get a gas mask, one of tens of thousands of Israelis rushing to pick up such protective kits in recent weeks.

Amid media speculation that Israel may carry out a strike on Iran’s nuclear sites and possibly prompt a regional war, the number of Israelis collecting state-funded gas masks has quadrupled from 17,000 in April to 70,000 in July, according to the military.

As she prepared to take the box from the postal workers charged with the distribution of the masks, Larissa, who did not want her last name to be published, said: “I am afraid – I don’t believe an attack will happen but I’d like to have the mask just in case.”

As speculation in Israel persists about a possible air strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, Israeli citizens – who polls show do not support an attack unless it is backed by the US, the country’s staunchest ally – are getting prepared.

Israel regards the Iranian nuclear programme as an existential threat and has said repeatedly that it will not permit the development of an Iranian nuclear bomb. Iran insists that its programme serves only civilian purposes – a claim widely disputed by western governments. Washington has urged Israel to give diplomacy and sanctions on Iran more time. On Thursday, a UN report showed that Iran has doubled the number of uranium enrichment machines it has in an underground bunker.

Already, many in Israel are renovating bomb shelters in their apartment buildings or sealing rooms so they can provide protection in the event of biological and chemical attack.

Oren Skurnik, whose company sells a system that protects sealed rooms or shelters against chemical and biological attacks, is working 17-hour days to meet demand that has jumped by “hundreds of per cent” in recent weeks. “From a situation in which the public was totally indifferent, it’s now awake and there is a sense that people are feeling insecurity,” he said.

Some local authorities are also getting ready. Tel Aviv, Israel’s business and cultural capital, has unveiled plans put up about 800,000 residents in 60 underground parking lots in case of an attack.

The anxiety has been at least partly fanned by widespread media coverage of Israel’s unpreparedness for war. Many bomb shelters in residential buildings across Israel are rundown and neglected or have become furniture storage rooms, while most of Israel’s Arab citizens – about 20 per cent of the population – lack shelters altogether.

Mila Genis, a 52-year-old book-keeper from the central Israeli city of Kfar Saba, said she has been pressing her neighbours to empty their shared building’s shelter of old sofas, car tires, wooden planks and other objects. “I believe there will be an Israeli attack and possibly a war, and we need to be ready,” she said.

Relentless speculation has also made investors wary. Real estate investments by foreigners dropped 50 per cent in the second quarter from the same period last year, partly because of Iran-related worries, a survey by Israeli real estate firm Man Properties shows.

“The more the media reports about a possible Iran attack, the more investments are clearly being avoided from abroad,” said Jacky Mukmel, head of Man Properties.

A regional war could cost Israel Shk47bn ($11.7bn) in direct damages such as to private property and infrastructure, six times more than the damages of the 34-day hostilities between Israel and Lebanon’s Hizbollah group six years ago, the research firm BDI-Coface said last week. Its analysis is based on the assumption that this time the more densely populated centre of Israel – rather than the north – would be targeted.

Opposition to an attack remains. In recent weeks, Gabi Ashkenazi, who served as Israel’s military chief until last year, said “we’re still not there” when commenting on when Iran is expected to have a nuclear weapon. He backs covert operations and sanctions against Tehran, not an attack.

Some analysts say Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, may be cornered into carrying out an attack even if all he intended with his rhetoric was to pressure allies to impose harsher sanctions on Tehran. “It started as a political bluff and it may end up as a disaster. Netanyahu may feel pressure to back up his rhetoric with actions,” said Yaron Ezrahi, a political scientist.

ft.com