Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on August 15, 2012
Estimated 2012 US Corn Yield
The USDA has published an early estimate of what they think this year’s United States average corn yield will be – a much depressed 123.4 bushels/acre due to the current record-breaking heat and drought in the US. Since they also maintain statistics for average yields back to 1866 (!!), I made the graph above showing the context for this year’s estimate (assuming it turns out to be reasonably accurate).
You can see that prior to the late 1930s, yields were pretty much flat with fluctuations year-to-year. Then began a long and roughly linear rise in yields due to improving agricultural technology. Year-to-year weather causes fluctuations around the trend, and the latest fluctuation is particularly large (though not off the scale of what has been seen before).
Hitherto, I’ve been of the view that there was no climate change signal visible in these yields, but the latest data point is perhaps starting to raise a small question mark there.
Recall that the United States generally got wetter during the 1960s to 1990s, likely due to natural sea surface temperature fluctuations, but has been getting drier since then due to some (arguable) combination of reversal of the natural fluctuation and overall climate drying due to excess carbon dioxide:
So, if we were going to see a climate related yield signal, we’d expect to see it mainly since the late 1990s. With the latest data point, there is now no trend in the yields if we just look at data back to 2002:
If you go back earlier, then there is still a positive upward trend. I doubt that this is a statistically significant trend change (I’d have to work harder than I have time for right now to tell for sure). But it’s definitely something to watch.
9 Comments on "Estimated 2012 US Corn Yield"
dsula on Wed, 15th Aug 2012 5:57 pm
Doesn’t look to bad. Still a long way to go till we see 1930 again.
Kenjamkov on Wed, 15th Aug 2012 6:37 pm
Adjust that for an additional 5 billion people in the World since 1930.
DC on Wed, 15th Aug 2012 7:53 pm
EW makes a crucial mistake. The rise was only party due to ‘technology’ but simple expansion and application or more fossil-fuels and chemicals. The odd bit of technology, but that climb is virtually all oil and simple linear expansion. Fact is, yield per acre has allready been maxed. Further increases now, come at the expense of converting things like forests and jungle into farmland. Per capita yields are pretty much over with….
dissident on Wed, 15th Aug 2012 9:07 pm
They started to use aquifer water after the 1930s. That is one of the primary reasons for the production increase. So this ramp was going to crash after the 2030s anyway.
SOS on Wed, 15th Aug 2012 9:46 pm
Not only is there no trend in the data, except the corn crop gets bigger and bigger, you can see the high/low drop offs through out the history of the graph. As the yields got bigger so did the high/low spikes.
This would be a very good time to sell short corn futures. History shows us that after one of these drop offs, that naturally cause higher prices, we see an almost immediate rise to even higher yields, which of course lead to lower prices. A bushel of corn is still 50 cents if you use a 1964 Kennedy Half Dollar.
Rick on Wed, 15th Aug 2012 10:56 pm
This is the worst drought in 800 years.
And a map that says it all: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/summarizing-americas-record-drought-one-picture
BillT on Thu, 16th Aug 2012 12:36 am
SOS, the world no longer revolves around Wall Street and the crooks that work there. It revolves around shrinking natural resources (water and energy). All this article does is prove how much our food depends on oil and water to exist and how far we have to fall to get back to sustainable levels, say pre 1930s.
Kenz300 on Thu, 16th Aug 2012 1:17 pm
The world added a billion more people in the last 12 years and continues to grow. Maybe never ending population growth is the problem. The worlds resources are finite.
SOS on Thu, 16th Aug 2012 6:32 pm
By historical standards this will be a huge corn crop. You may have heard the old adage: buy the rumor sell the news? This is a perfect example. Its about time to sell.