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Page added on July 5, 2012
Demography is Destiny
As seen on the graphic above, most of the growth within the 10 most populous nations, is expected to occur in nations which are already impoverished, corrupt, and in some cases seminal hotbeds of global terrorism.
Since the above graph only includes the 10 most populous nations as of now, it does not provide a glimpse into the rapid population growth of Africa.
Data summary
World population by countryAll figures in 000s. Click heading to sort table. Download this data
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Country
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1950
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2011
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2100
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% change, 1950- 2011
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% change 2011- 2100
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% change, 1950- 2100
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SOURCE: UN POPULATION
Total population (1 July annually interpolated) in thousands – Medium variant Revision 2010 – WUP Revision 2011
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects DEMOBASE extract. 2011 |
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| Africa | 229,895 | 1,045,923 | 3,574,141 | 354.96 | 241.72 | 1,454.68 |
| Asia | 1,403,389 | 4,207,448 | 4,596,224 | 199.81 | 9.24 | 227.51 |
| Europe | 547,287 | 739,299 | 674,796 | 35.08 | -8.72 | 23.30 |
| Latin America and the Caribbean | 167,368 | 596,629 | 687,517 | 256.48 | 15.23 | 310.78 |
| Northern America | 171,615 | 347,563 | 526,428 | 102.53 | 51.46 | 206.75 |
| Oceania | 12,675 | 37,175 | 65,819 | 193.28 | 77.05 | 419.27 |
| World | 2,532,229 | 6,974,036 | 10,124,926 | 175.41 | 45.18 | 299.84 |
The table above provides a broad global overview of regional population growth over the next several decades. The table below looks exclusively at expected growth in the ten currently most populous nations.
But in a few decades, we should see changes in the ten most populous nations, just as we have seen such a change over the past several decades. Different populations wax and wane depending upon a large number of factors.
| Table | |||||
| 10 Most Populous Nations: 2000-2011: Population Trends | |||||
| Rank | Nation | 2000 | 2011 | Change | % Change |
| 1 | China | 1,278.0 | 1,348.0 | 70.0 | 5.5% |
| 2 | India | 1,071.0 | 1,241.0 | 170.0 | 15.9% |
| 3 | United States | 285.5 | 313.1 | 27.6 | 9.7% |
| 4 | Indonesia | 216.2 | 242.3 | 26.1 | 12.1% |
| 5 | Pakistan | 147.1 | 197.4 | 50.2 | 34.2% |
| 6 | Brazil | 176.9 | 196.7 | 19.8 | 11.2% |
| 7 | Bangladesh | 131.9 | 150.5 | 18.6 | 14.1% |
| 8 | Russia | 146.1 | 142.8 | (3.3) | -2.3% |
| 9 | Japan | 125.9 | 126.5 | 0.6 | 0.5% |
| 10 | Mexico | 97.0 | 114.8 | 17.8 | 18.4% |
| Population in Millions | |||||
| Population data from UN, except for Pakistan (from Pakistan census) | |||||
| 2000 Pakistan population estimated from 1998-2011 growth rate. | |||||
1850
1. China 429,931,000
2. India 203,415,000
3. Russia 64,903,000
4. France 35,783,000
5. Japan 33,111,000
6. Germany 29,800,000
7. Turkey 26,636,000
8. Italy 25,017,000
9. U.S. 23,192,000
10. U.K. 20,817,000 __Most Populous Nations in History Source
The above list looks at the most populous countries in 1850. Follow the link to observe the metric changing over multi-decadal intervals from 1800 to the latest available up to publishing.
Since the most rapid population growth is occurring in the most impoverished tribal areas of Earth, in populations with some of the lowest average IQs and highest homicide rates measured, the Earth is in store for what could easily be a wild and violent ride downward into rapid impoverishment.
This coming anarchy is developing at the same time that populations in more advanced nations of the world are beginning to shrink, while the governments of the most advanced nations of the world are themselves sinking into a quagmire of debt — due to social policies of promoting dependency upon the state, and due to government strangulation of private sector economies.
Wiser persons will make preparations for this coming anarchy. Such preparations will go well beyond preparation for peak oil doom, EMP catastrophe, or simple economic collapse from any number of widely anticipated causes.
To meet the coming anarchy with a chance to survive and prosper on the other side, you will need to step out of the common herd, escape your indoctrination and conditioning, and consider the problem without preconceptions or moral judgments as best you can.
Hope for the best. Plan for the worst. And plan wisely, without expectation of wise action on the part of anyone else — particularly your government.
6 Comments on "Demography is Destiny"
BillT on Thu, 5th Jul 2012 11:55 am
You cannot plan for world wide anarchy protection unless you are one of the anarchists (1%) and that club is closed.
There is no ‘prosper on the other side’ unless you mean having ’40 acres and a mule’. THAT will be the new elite 1% but there will be about 6 billion or so fewer of us across the Earth, or what is left of it.
This article uses graphs and a lot of words and says nothing new.
BillT on Thu, 5th Jul 2012 12:00 pm
BYW: Survival is the new judge of who is the most intelligent. I’ll take my chances with a 3rd world person who may not be able to read Shakespeare, but who knows how to live off the land, anytime. Intelligence is no judge of worth. Besides, research is finding that present day Western man is still learning things known thousands of years ago by our ancestors and forgotten.
SOS on Thu, 5th Jul 2012 12:19 pm
When talking about third worl poverty you are talking about the lowest educated, most violent and poorest populations in the world. These people are impoverished because they don’t know how to live off the land. They don’t know How to do much except steal what you have. They live hand to mouth by the law of the jungle.
Intelligence is the ability to think and reason. Education means reading Shakespeare, having skills to provide for your self and family and living cooperatively with others. Propaganda is a powerful weapon defying both intellegance and education.
Politics keeps people poor. Governments impoverish for the benefit of the ruling class. A ruler at war with the well being of of their own people is a huge threat to this country. The president is leading a war on energy. This is causing untold suffering here and abroad.
Kenz300 on Thu, 5th Jul 2012 2:04 pm
Access to family planning services needs to be available to all that want it.
If you can not provide for your self you can not provide for a child.
Every country needs to develop a plan to balance its population with its resources, food, water, oil, energy and jobs. Those that do not will be exporting their populations.
Hugh Culliton on Thu, 5th Jul 2012 3:45 pm
I think Kunstler once said that we’re “yeast people” in that our population grows exponentially until it’s unsustainable and then crashes like yeast in the batch of beer I’m making. Gaia’s non-industrial carrying capacity was about a billion people. We’re now at 7b and this is a problem. We ain’t going to reach 10b. Like yeast, we’ll drown in our own waste, or be unable to produce enough food. As we live in an age where 1 calorie of food needs 10 calories of oil to produce, now that we’re over the peak, things are going to get very, very dangerous.
St. Roy on Fri, 6th Jul 2012 1:46 am
Hugh:
I agree. The human population of the planet will either be 0 (extinct) or less than 1 Billion by 2100. Without the fossil fuel inheritance that has enabled our population growth, we can not sustain the numbers. Just look at history.
We won’t use all the fuels buy EROEI will leave them in the ground.