World Solar Power Goes Parabolic

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34 Comments on "World Solar Power Goes Parabolic"

dsula on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 12:46 pm 



This is impossible. All-knowing BillT and spelling-impaired DC said it can’t be done. We are supposed to be screwed.

BillT on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 1:10 pm 



dsula,

The 2008 total world energy use was approximately 135,000 TWh. (today’s is likely even higher as that was a recession year.)

55.7 TWh = 1/2,423 of the energy used that year alone or .0004% so all we have to do is increase present solar energy production 2,423 times today’s output in the next 10-20 years before all energy sources are depleted to keep today’s levels. Do you really think that will happen? Where is the money to build out all of this infrastructure to come from? The world is broke, bankrupt, on the verge of financial collapse.

A Terra-watt is 1,000,000,000,000 watts X 135,000 / 5 hours per day (average usable sunlight per day)/ 365 days, would require at least $74,000,000,000,000. ($74 trillion), to get enough power to replace the other energy sources with solar. Not to mention the systems to tie them all together, plus installation/maintenance and replacement and inflation. An easy $100 trillion or twice the annual GDP of the entire planet.

Bob Owens on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 2:04 pm 



We have to start somewhere and this looks good. After all, soon solar will be all we will have. We will have to live with it no matter its faults. Get used to it!

deedl on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 2:15 pm 



Since 2007 the growth was exponentially with an average of 70,1% per year. With this rate of growth it will only take 15 years to increase production by 2423 times. Of course the growth will not continue exponentially indefenitly, but for many years to come, so expect solar to become cheap and abundant. Also your price calculation has to be done with the future prices of solar panels, which will be below current prices, because watching the growth rates mass manufacturing has not really started yet.

Solar already has grid paritiy in the sunnier half of the world countries and will soon also reach it for the rest. Expect solar to be cheap and abundant. In germany energy suppliers are already thinking about abondoning gas power stations, who served the peakload at daytime when prices where high, because cheap solar energy is killing the prices during the day.

Hundreds of companies and universities are developing different approches of storage. In a few years cheap large scale storage will be available for both homeowners and industrial customers, then intermittency wont be a problem. Besides that solarproduction for each day can be predicted very precise using the weatherforecast. This can be seen every day on the european energy exchange, and therefore solar energy production is well planable in advance.

Kenz300 on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 2:21 pm 



The transition to safe, clean alternative energy sources has begun. Wind, solar, wave energy, geothermal and second generation biofuels made from algae, cellulose and waste are the future.

Norm on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 2:34 pm 



Solar dont work at night. This alt-energy stuff does not work all the time.

I like Bill T analysis. If you only are generating 0.0004% of the energy, then the parabolic chart is dangerously rosy compared to reality.

BillT on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 2:54 pm 



And no mention of the fact that solar or any ‘alternate’ energy source will fade away after oil disappears. The panels/systems cannot be made without oil to power the mining, refining, forming and assembly of the metals and minerals used to make them. We live in an oil system that cannot exist in an oil-less world.

The Practician on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 4:52 pm 



Whats that thing we like to say about exponential trends when we are referring to something such as population growth or resource consumption? It’s that they are unsustainable. I don’t see any reason for solar to not keep increasing for quite some time, but it is never going to replace fossil fuels.

The Practician on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 4:53 pm 



*at current scales of energy usage.

Norm on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 6:25 pm 



HELLO HELLO, PROBLEM, the .0004% MIGHT BE WRONG ???

According to Wikipedia
world energy consumption is 474 exajoules (2008) and an exajoule is 132,000 TeraWatt-Hours.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption

This means annual world energy consumption is 62,568,000 TWH (2008).

This article claims 55.7 TWH annual for solar.

The solar would be .0000089 % of energy production, NOT .0004%.

Just my best 2 minute guess, so anybody else want to double check this?

Seems like the Hamster on the wheel is generating more than those panels.

Kenjamkov on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 6:48 pm 



Using every last drop of oil to build these panels and we are set … for about 25 years, then they need replacing.

If anything has a chance, it will involve the ocean, arguably the most powerful thing on the planet.

Arthur on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 7:36 pm 



Nice entry for this forum:

http://deepresource.wordpress.com/2012/06/20/solar-energy-boom-on-horizon-for-japan/

Japan about to set electricity prices on 40 cents/kwh. This is the way to go forward!! Now investment in solar becomes profitable. Morale: take the (price) hit now, now that we can more easily stomach it.

Arthur on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 7:43 pm 



Have a look a this before juggling with figures like 0.0004% as being the inevitable norm

http://cleantechnica.com/2012/03/27/solar-energy-in-germany-video/germany-load-curve-2012-03-26/

From a certain production level per year (100 Gw against 30 GW now) big players like Samsung will step in and produce solar cells for 30 cents / watt. It is essential we make the transition now rather than in 5 years.

Arthur on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 7:59 pm 



Bill, there will be enough scrap metal above the ground for these panels, once industrial society has vanished. Cars, steelworks, aviation, it will all vanish. As the links says, 10% of the current energy demand from solar by 2020 should be possible. Solar cells have an eroi of about 10, with upward potential. WE should use the oil, coals and gas left to set up a new energy base now. The japanese are leading the way with their plans to double electricity prices. That’s what we all should do.

Ham on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 8:40 pm 



Indeed Arthur, conservation and use of all the crap we have made will be key. By the way, derivatives are 3 times the planet GDP. Essentially gambling and stealing from the future which inevitably will come down like a house of cards.

Max Reid on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 9:10 pm 



Dont be tensed guys.

Where Oil has lost, Coal has picked up.
If you look at the production data in BP 2012 stats. Coal’s share is 31.5% and Oil is 31.8%. So by now in 2012, Coal would have already overtaken Oil.

People will burn fossil fuels until all snow in Artic Ocean is lost and few islands sink. Then the massive transition to Renewables/Nuclear will start.

Environmental groups who opposed nuclear power will also be held responsible.

Arthur on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 10:50 pm 



Max, read Heinberg’s book on coal… Peak coal will be around 2025.

Meanwhile Serbia is going to build the largest solar powerstation in the world: 1000 MW!

http://www.neurope.eu/article/serbia-host-largest-solar-energy-park

Max Reid on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 11:23 pm 



Thanks Arthur

In Germany, now the solar costs only $2.24 / installed watt and $0.90 / watt panel cost.

http://cleantechnica.com/2012/06/19/2-24watt-vs-4-44watt-solar-germany-vs-solar-us/

MrEnergyCzar on Wed, 20th Jun 2012 11:46 pm 



We need liquid transport fuels, we don’t have the energy to switch the world’s systems over to something new…Peak Oil is past….

MrEnergyCzar

BillT on Thu, 21st Jun 2012 2:49 am 



Really? We will use scrap metal to replace mining? Rare earths? Silicon? And how much energy does it take to move this scrap/minerals to a site where it can be used? Maybe a thousand miles. Then melted down and reformed/machined? Then assembled and transported and reinstalled? Horses?

I happen to know from experience that it takes the electric of a small (25,000 people) town for 2+ hours to melt just 10 tons of steel from scrap and ores. I worked in a steel foundry that used electric furnaces. Not to mention cranes and machines to just move it to the furnaces and then to take it away to the next step. What will you do with the slag? Where will you get the electrodes that melt the steel and in turn are lost to the slag? How about the fire brick linings that also need to be replaced regularly? Have you ever really thought through the very involved process to make a solar panel?

And we have not even mentioned the machines to apply the film or all the electrical connections, etc.

Arthur on Thu, 21st Jun 2012 4:49 am 



There are enough fossil fuels left for the tasks described by Bill for decades to come provided it is confined to the production of a new energy base, based on wind and first of all solar. The car, aviation, home luxery appliances like freezers, airco’s, the notion of economic growth should be killed now. We should be engaged in a battle for demand destruction to stay ahead of the coming production contraction.

Yesterday on the news in Holland: the traffic jams are gone! Mind you, Holland is the second most densely populated country in the world.and has the second highest income per capita in Europe. The reasons the newsreader gave: 1) plenty new asphalt 2) the economic crisis.

BS! The drivers here cannot afford the high fuel prices anymore and are cutting costs in a grand scale. That is the real reason.

Norm on Thu, 21st Jun 2012 6:57 am 



C’mon enough of the usual peak oil platitudes (soon we will all grow vegetables, not enough traffic jams, no metal available after peak oil) etc etc.

I’m looking for some hard numbers, and need your help. So whats the real answer is it these
solar panels producing .0000089 % of energy production, or is it .0004%.

THAT is interesting cause that would be some hard facts, and either way its a TINY number. I dont really care if you think your vegetable garden will solve peak oil etc etc. I am wanting to understand if we are really only producign 1 part in 1 million of our energy needs from the presently installed base of solar panels. See, some people place it much higher, 1% from solar etc.

Arthur on Thu, 21st Jun 2012 4:44 pm 



http://deepresource.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/eu-electricity-generation.jpg

Norm, Europe produces 15% of its electricity from renewables.

Germany produces 44% of the worlds PV electricity and can produce 17 GW during the day in march! Om a baseload of 60GW. These 0.0004% figures maybe apply to Kongo but not to Germany. There can be no doubt that 2020 developed nations like Germany and Japan will cover a large of their electricity needs from solar.

With current growth rates solar could over 10% of the overall energy need by 2020.

Norm on Thu, 21st Jun 2012 4:59 pm 



Arthur, You did not read the hard numbers or links that I included. The numbers are based upon TeraWatt-Hours. So you are just launching a bunch of foam-at-the-mouth platitudes (44%, wow, hooray, oh boy !) and ignoring the hard numbers factual number quandary that Bill T has raised and I have contributed to. You shoot your mouth off about “10%”. Meanwhile, the hard numbers were, .0004% by Bill T and .00000089% by Wikipedia based upon Terawatt Hours. But if you think science and reality involves pom-poms and rah-rah, then just keep on cheerleading with no sense of reality in what you just wrote.

Arthur on Thu, 21st Jun 2012 6:34 pm 



Norm, you are not reading properly… You are talking about the world, I was talking about Germany.. You are talking about overall energy, I was talking about electricity, a small part of the overall picture. I know industrial society is finished, in this I agree with Bill. I think howver that total catastrophy can be avoided for what is now still known as the West, may the devil come and get it.

Try to focus on this graph for a minute:

http://c1cleantechnicacom.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/files/2012/03/Germany-Load-curve-2012-03-26.jpg

By 2020 Europa will have largely replaced the grid
by local, distributed electricity generation. The car economy will be gone.

Arthur on Thu, 21st Jun 2012 6:47 pm 



http://www.solarworld.de/presse/sunday-pressedienst/alle-artikel-sunday-pressedienst-ausgabe-12012/sunday-artikelansicht/article/jetzt-trennt-sich-die-spreu-vom-weizen/

Germany has now some 20 GW solar installed with a yearly increase of 5 GW, which means that in 8 years they have replaced their 60GW. Mass production by giants like Samsung will bring down the price of solar cells from 1$ to 30 cent per watt. This means that just like every westerner can afford a PC of 800$, in a few years an average westerner can afford 2.4 kW solar panels for the same amount.

0.00004%?

My foot.

Arthur on Thu, 21st Jun 2012 7:12 pm 



The figures for solar mean peak power, not average power. On average solar in Germany NOW contributes 3.5% of the electricity generation, by far the highest in the world and rising fast.

isgota on Thu, 21st Jun 2012 8:19 pm 



Norm, neither the .0004% or .00000089% figures are correct.

First, you made a mistake in the conversion. An ExaJoule equals to about 278 TWh not 132,000 TWh (that’s the value for the whole 2008 energy consumption, BTW).

Second, those values in ExaJoules or MTOEs that appear in many stats are values that include a lot of losses on energy use (i.e., power generation ineff., ICE ineff., etc.) making the solar generation values be smaller than they are in final use.

Just some numbers for instance, BP stats say total electricity generation in 2011 was 22,018 TWh so you can affirm that 0.25% was generated by solar power.

Indeed, it’s a very small number now, but with 80% annual growth that would change faster than many people think.

Arthur on Thu, 21st Jun 2012 9:10 pm 



http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/New-Study-Solar-Grid-Parity-Is-Here-Today/

Solar already has achieved break-even price in the US and costs 9 euro cents in Holland, that is half of what you have to pay to the utilities. In the past 18 months price for PV has come down 50%.

Norm on Thu, 21st Jun 2012 10:19 pm 



Then why is solar power only .00000089% of world energy production ? do you dispute the numbers I provided way far back in this thread?

I thought you guys had a scientific attitude, or sumthin. guess i was wrong.

Kenz300 on Fri, 22nd Jun 2012 1:34 am 



Global Investments in Green Energy are up nearly a third to $211 billion,
about one-third more than the $160 billion invested in 2009.

China and other developing countries are now the biggest investors in large-scale renewables.

deedl on Fri, 22nd Jun 2012 4:58 am 



@Norm

because you cannot cover the world overnight with solar panels. There are only few companies in the world that have the know how to build the factories to produce pv-modules, thus the growth rate of pv-production is limited. But the sector is growing exponentially with high rates, which shows how attractive solar has become.

And dont underestimate the power of exponential growth. If the capacities of factory producers grow exponentially, then the pv-module output growth expnentially (integration) and the pv-electricity production growth exponentially (integration again).

Again, with current growth rate it would just take 15 years to go 100% pv in electricity production. Of course the sector wont grow exponentially forever, but this number gives an impression how quickly the pv-industry is growing.

isgota on Fri, 22nd Jun 2012 2:53 pm 



Norm, neither the .0004% or .00000089% figures are correct.

First, you made a mistake in the conversion. An ExaJoule equals to about 278 TWh not 132,000 TWh (that’s the value for the whole 2008 energy consumption, BTW).

Second, those values in ExaJoules or MTOEs that appear in many stats are values that include a lot of losses on energy use (i.e., power generation ineff., ICE ineff., etc.) making the solar generation values be smaller than they are in final use.

Just some numbers for instance, BP stats say total electricity generation in 2011 was 22,018 TWh so you can affirm that 0.25% was generated by solar power.

Indeed, it’s a very small number now, but with 80% annual growth that would change faster than many people think.

sexyrobot on Fri, 29th Jun 2012 4:15 pm 



OMFG. Just had to stop and say that the math in here is TERRIBLE. Did you all skip elementary school? 1/10= 0.1 = 10%
1/2324= .0004 = .04% (not great, but still…100x what BillT is claiming)