Oil depletion Scenarios consensus infers 97-Mbd Peak in 2027

7 Comments on "Oil depletion Scenarios consensus infers 97-Mbd Peak in 2027"

dsula on Thu, 3rd May 2012 11:37 pm 



Not good news. I was hoping to experience the decline. I was promised 2005.

Rick on Thu, 3rd May 2012 11:43 pm 



No one can promise anything. But make no mistake the world is in decline.

MrEnergyCzar on Thu, 3rd May 2012 11:52 pm 



We’ve been stuck between 73-74 mbd of conventional oil for several years now. This graph is including the unconventional sources without subtracting the higher energy inputs needed to produce 97 mbd.. Someone needs to make a better net energy graph..

MrEnergyCzar

James A. Hellams on Fri, 4th May 2012 12:22 am 



IF this is possible, it would mean an annual oil consumption of 35.4 billion barrels per year.

This would mean an even faster rate of depletion than what we have now. The present rate of depletion is 30 to 32 billion barrels annually.

Instead of promising more oil in the ground, it will mean that the precious FINITE supply we have will be all used up in a MUCH shorter time!

This kind of of thinking that oil can reach the level proposed, IF IT CAN; will only serve the worsen the anger of the world’s citizens, when the citizens of the world realize that the oil is gone.

This thinking will result in a MUCH HARDER FALL, when production stops.

JohnRM on Fri, 4th May 2012 3:43 am 



I think that part of the problem of considering net energy and its effects are the unknowns of both future efficiency in oil use and extraction and the rate of infiltration of alternative liquid energy into the markets. I would agree that it is an important part of the puzzle that is missing, but we cannot expect the author to guess at it, and at this point, most of us can only guess.

keith on Fri, 4th May 2012 3:48 am 



Trendslines peak is just the average of all the other peaks. If I’d bet on any one peak in this graph, it’d be the deutsche bank peak. Germans tend to do things right(exceptions WWI and WWII) and the german government has placed Germany in the fore front in renewable sources of energy. Back in the 80’s, the opec nations doubled their ultimate reserves over-night because the reagan government asked them too. This plunged the cost of a barrel of oil to under 20 dollars and sped the rapid decline of the Soviet Union. The opec nations never reversed these estimates afterward. Many peaks include these cooked numbers. I don’t think anyone knows when the peak has or will happen, but I have read that it will not be one peak but many peaks. We peak the economy slows, we recover, peak, and slow. etc. I am interested to see what will happen after the global economy recovers. Unfortunately, since our economies are based on confidence, we will not know be told these answers until many years after the fact.

BillT on Fri, 4th May 2012 3:49 am 



This is a “Quantity” vs “Quality” debate. No mention of net energy increase, just barrels of something that burns. Does it include 200 proof alcohol? Moonshine? Rubbing alcohol? I once made some good stuff in a homemade still out of apple cider that would burn. Does that count in those 97 billion barrels? After all, the world consumes 250,000,000 barrels of alcohol every year. And then there is the alcohol used in paints, plastics, perfumes, glues, aerosols, etc.

We are getting desperate to prove that we are not in an energy contraction without end.