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Page added on March 20, 2012
Peak Oil Denial: Not Understanding Doesn’t Help
Yet another in the seemingly endless string of cherry-picked story lines attempting to put to rest the “theory” of Peak Oil has found its way onto the internet, completely unremarkable in the talking points offered, which I’ll get to. What was most striking was not so much the uniform lack of understanding on the part of all but a handful of commenters.
The blatant, racist stupidity of several caught me completely by surprise. I didn’t think that offensive nonsense had found its way into the Peak Oil conversation, but Racist Ignorance is alive and well in this arena, unfortunately. But any forum will do, I guess….And the relevance of that conversation to Peak Oil is … what?) In this day and age, that moronic tripe still flourishes … amazing! (And of course, the continuing nonsense about the fascist-socialist-Kenyan-Muslim President out to destroy America hasn’t abated any, judging by some of the other comments.) Ironic that those who lament and fear what this nation is coming to fail to appreciate the fact that the paranoid garbage they parrot is a primary cause and symptom. Each and all of us need to be better than this. We’ll need no less in the years to come.
I probably should not be as stunned (and dismayed) as I was, given the nonsense that passes for mush of the political discourse today, but it is striking to see how many people seem utterly incapable of stepping back and considering a bit of reality, even if it is at the expense of a carefully-tended, fear-based ideology. The commentary tarnished my optimism, but only temporarily. Best not to give that ignorance any more attention….
A sampling of what that article had to offer, beginning with the almost-obligatory snarky comment passing for relevance to the discussion [my bold/italic]:
‘With only 2% of the world’s oil reserves, we can’t just drill our way to lower gas prices,‘ [President Obama] said. ‘Not when we consume 20% of the world’s oil.’
The claim makes it appear as though the U.S. is an oil-barren nation, perpetually dependent on foreign oil and high prices unless we can cut our own use and develop alternative energy sources like algae.
Nice touch … bona fides duly established. But just in case there’s doubt, we start with the magic words [my bold/italic] from Page One of the Deniers’ Playbook [see this]:
[F]ar from being oil-poor, the country is awash in vast quantities — enough to meet all the country’s oil needs for hundreds of years.
And then more selective facts, without context or even a bit of accompanying, vital information to educate and inform. Only a handful of knowledgeable commenters bothered to discuss the claims and provide missing context, given that most of them were much too focused on slamming the aforementioned socialist-Muslim yadda, yadda, yadda. How does perpetuating ignorance and/or lack of understanding help in any way?
A sampling [my bold/italic]:
At least 86 billion barrels of oil in the Outer Continental Shelf yet to be discovered, according to the government’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management.
About 24 billion barrels in shale deposits in the lower 48 states, according to EIA.
Up to 2 billion barrels of oil in shale deposits in Alaska’s North Slope, says the U.S. Geological Survey.
Up to 12 billion barrels in ANWR, according to the USGS.
As much as 19 billion barrels in the Utah tar sands, according to the Bureau of Land Management.
Then, there’s the massive Green River Formation in Wyoming, which according to the USGS contains a stunning 1.4 trillion barrels of oil shale — a type of oil released from sedimentary rock after it’s heated.
When you include oil shale, the U.S. has 1.4 trillion barrels of technically recoverable oil, according to the Institute for Energy Research, enough to meet all U.S. oil needs for about the next 200 years, without any imports.
For starters, Chris Nelder recently offered a healthy dose of reality about shale.
Even those with no knowledge about oil production whatsoever might find some reasonable answers to these questions: How difficult might it be to find, extract, and then produce oil from near the North Pole? Think there might be an issue or two? Perhaps some weather concerns? Maybe just a bit more expensive? More difficult? Riskier? Might take a while, too.
As for “a type of oil released from sedimentary rock after it’s heated”: kerogen is not exactly the same thing as the oil we’ve all seen gushing from wells. Despite several decades of effort, it’s still not a commercially feasible enterprise. And the “after it’s heated” part is just a bit more complicated that the author bothers to explain. [See this, for example.] But inconvenient facts just get in the way….
Perhaps as remarkable as anything, however, was this statement by the author, which almost all of his commenters failed to mention or apparently even notice:
To be sure, energy companies couldn’t profitably recover all this oil — even at today’s prices — and what they could wouldn’t make it to market for years.
See … that’s kinda the whole problem with being “awash” in “vast” quantities….A bazillion barrels of anything buried underground, or in the Arctic, or otherwise not extracted by conventional means will stay right there if there’s no profit to be made. High prices might of course make some companies willing to go for it, but what wasn’t mentioned is the fact that high costs on their end means higher prices for us consumers (even the ignorant, racist ones). That’s not a good thing, and thus not especially helpful.
Telling someone that within walking distance of their home are millions and millions of dollars in local banks is all fine and well. But if that someone can’t get any of it, the amounts stop being impressive fairly quickly. Vast quantities of inferior, unconventional oil tucked away for many more decades is not any different. Impressive totals, but mostly useless to us. Those kinds of added facts would be ever-so-helpful to the many who clearly do not yet appreciate the challenges of Peak Oil.
And not making it “to market for years” … that’s kinda problematic, too. See, shocking as it is, conventional fields—the ones we’ve been tapping into for decades now—are depleting. Every day. They’re not limitless. Worldwide demand is increasing. More of those conventional crude supplies are also being kept by the producers to satisfy demands in their own countries. More for them, less for us. Easy math!
As I and others in the know point out day after day: the United States uses in the neighborhood of 18 million barrels of oil per day, about half of which we still import. Getting all of these inferior, unconventional supplies (and shale, tar sands, etc. are most definitely not the same as conventional crude) to a point where they will meet just our demands, let alone contribute to world supply, is decades away at best, if ever. And all the while, worldwide demand is still increasing and existing fields are still depleting.
These magical supplies Mr. Merline speaks of are harder to get to (thus more expensive); they require more refining (thus more expensive); their rate of production is much less than the ever-dwindling supplies of conventional crude; the energy efficiency quality is not the same; and in general, much more time, effort, expense, and risk is required to produce what’s left. This is good news?
11 Comments on "Peak Oil Denial: Not Understanding Doesn’t Help"
BillT on Tue, 20th Mar 2012 1:16 pm
A billion barrels is 3 months of Us imports. They will be very expensive barrels. They will take years to reach the local gas station. Those are facts…
george on Tue, 20th Mar 2012 1:32 pm
if they told the truth their stock would crash
Ken Nohe on Tue, 20th Mar 2012 3:18 pm
Here I am, a typical reader in my sofa, reading your stuff with a beer, no, knowledge whatsoever about oil, a IQ of 95, political ideas which have slowly fossilized over the last 20 years and you want to pick a fight with me?
The last thing I ever learned was in grade… I forgot. But it does not matter; if we do the “right” things, oil is plentiful. One thing I know for sure is that there are plenty of “us” and if we succeed in choosing the right people then all will be fine. You know you can’t argue against that so you try to muddle through the issue with technical points. Irrelevant!
I sincerely wonder why you even bother. Have you ever convinced anyone on the Internet? And by the way, I didn’t even read your article, just the tittle. That enough for me to know who you are and give you the answer you deserve…
Kenjamkov on Tue, 20th Mar 2012 6:26 pm
Haha good one Ken. You are joking right?
Anvil on Tue, 20th Mar 2012 9:47 pm
Double face palm moment.
SOS on Tue, 20th Mar 2012 10:02 pm
Ken is absolutly correct. Oil and other fossil fuel energy stores are virtually endless.
The conversion to LNG in transportation is well underway. In a few years this will help level or reduce oil demand at a price far cheaper than electricty wind or solar.
LNG is a huge enemy of wind and solar. It provides a much cheaper and environmentally friendly energy source. In comparison wind and solar are totally impractical except in the most extreme situations.
One point that should be made is how oil fields always produce far more than they were estimated to produce at the start.
Its missleading to say something like “just 3 months supply”. Its similar to the President saying 2% of the worlds supply, 20% of the worlds demand. These statements are intentionally said because many people dont understand quantitive analysis. They will still take the tall thin glass of soda over the short fat one. Your big brother is still getting over!
3 months supply is huge for the economy and the energy supply. We will have the 3 months supply even if the new discoveries are outlawed. They will be expensive, you can bet on that.
Of course if we develop our reserves in an orderly fashion and in a manner designed to meet demand we can enjoy ample and reasonably priced energy.
Any other alternative is far too expensive including solar or wind. The electric car is the most expensive transportation you can buy.
Remember oil is high right now because the end users are bidding on a generally stable inventory. Its an inventory that is not going down and disappearing as some of you would have us believe. Its an inventory that is protected from competition because our own energy reserves are protected by regulation, law and policy. The keystone pipeline is an example of this.
Shipping capacity of raw crude is greatly limited. Existing pipelines are full. New sources like the huge Bakken Shale are forced to shp by truck and rail, a much slower way to tranasport and of course much more expensive.
The keystone would have allowed all of this oil that is going to be coming on line over the next 30 years to be shipped far more cheaply. Not only that, the pipeline would have had the capacity to ship the canadian sands oil as well.
All of those factors would have a huge impact on the worls available inventory and prices would come down dramatically. Unfortunately the exiting inventory is being protected and prices are being kept much higher by government policy.
SOS on Tue, 20th Mar 2012 10:09 pm
Spell checked:
Ken is absolutely correct. Oil and other fossil fuel energy stores are virtually endless.
The conversion to LNG in transportation is well underway. In a few years this will help level or reduce oil demand at a price far cheaper than electricity wind or solar.
LNG is a huge enemy of wind and solar. It provides a much cheaper and environmentally friendly energy source. In comparison wind and solar are totally impractical except in the most extreme situations.
One point that should be made is how oil fields always produce far more than they were estimated to produce at the start.
Its misleading to say something like “just 3 months supply”. Its similar to the President saying 2% of the worlds supply, 20% of the worlds demand. These statements are intentionally said because many people don’t understand quantitive analysis. They will still take the tall thin glass of soda over the short fat one. Your big brother is still getting over!
3 months supply is huge for the economy and the energy supply. We will have the 3 months supply even if the new discoveries are outlawed. They will be expensive, you can bet on that.
Of course if we develop our reserves in an orderly fashion and in a manner designed to meet demand we can enjoy ample and reasonably priced energy.
Any other alternative is far too expensive including solar or wind. The electric car is the most expensive transportation you can buy.
Remember oil is high right now because the end users are bidding on a generally stable inventory. Its an inventory that is not going down and disappearing as some of you would have us believe. Its an inventory that is protected from competition because our own energy reserves are protected by regulation, law and policy.
The keystone pipeline is an example of this.
Shipping capacity of raw crude is greatly limited. Existing pipelines are full. New sources like the huge Bakken Shale are forced to ship by truck and rail, a much slower way to transport and of course much more expensive.
The keystone would have allowed all of this oil that is going to be coming on line over the next 30 years to be shipped far more cheaply. Not only that, the pipeline would have had the capacity to ship the canadian sands oil as well.
All of those factors would have a huge impact on the worlds available inventory and prices would come down dramatically. Unfortunately the existing inventory is being protected and prices are being kept much higher by government policy.
BillT on Wed, 21st Mar 2012 12:48 am
SOS, you are deep in denial. The sun’s energy is basically endless also, but the cost in energy and materials to harness it are not. There will be a lot of carbon energy left in the ground when the oil age grinds to a halt. Trillions of barrels, probably. And there it will stay. Why? EROEI. If you do not accept this law of physics, no one will ever change your mind about energy supplies. A lesser limiting factor is financial. When it gets too expensive to recover, process and transport, it will end. So there are two facts that will stop the Age of Petroleum in your life time. And maybe sooner than we all think.
SOS on Wed, 21st Mar 2012 3:08 am
LOL.
SOS on Wed, 21st Mar 2012 3:31 am
I appreciate your enthusiasm. I too think when the day comes there will be a lot of carbon energy left. Thats exactly my point. There is more than enough for the foreseeable fuiture. In the meantime if altenatives are truly cheaper with no offsetting disadvantages, like huge cost, they will eventually replace many uses of the carbon based energy sources.
Unfortunately we are now getting the worst of two worlds. Government policies at all levels are making the abundent carbon energy we have far more expensive than need be. The alternatives are more expensive yet.
The inventory the world has in available oil supplies is highly controlled. Over time it matches demand. It does not shrink. It is mainly supplied by OPEC. They can increase and decrease supply enough to maximize price according to supply and demand.
Their ability to do this is being protected by the governments policies that hinder and block production of oil and gas in the USA. I dont believe these polices are intentionally protecting the worlds current inventory levels but that is the net affect. If the USA were brought up to full production this available inventory that everyone is bidding on would be much larger and cheaper.
Supply, over history, has kept pace with demand, even in this age of opec and high oil prices. To increase supply and lower prices our government needs to implement polices for orderly and rapid development of americas resources. Technology is keeping pace with the challenges of higher production. It needs to be supported so this immense wealth can benefit all, certainly first and foremost in the form of much lower energy prices.
Drilling incentives have to be put in place. The Keystone pipeline has to be built. How gas is refined and what blends are necessary have to be re-worked. The conversion to LNG for transportation has to be incoraged and supported. Natural gas fired electric plants have to be built in the areas where natural gas is being produced.
A fair return on assests owned by the USA must be returned to the people. Immense royalties will be created if orderly development of Americas publicly held Oil and Gas reserves were promoted. We could certainly pay the debt, balance the budget and save social secruity.
Currently this production is at all time low levels. Thank goodness for the private and state lands promoting development or we would be a lot worse off than we are now.
BillT on Wed, 21st Mar 2012 3:43 am
You seem to have missed my point. We will NOT access what we have for many reasons, but costs will be the major current one. The current gas bubble shows what happens in a panicking Us. Everyone blew there last savings to jump on the ‘new’ source, but, like most other ‘new’ sources, it was a fools bet.
There are no ‘new’ sources. Shale oil, tar sands, etc were all known of long ago but for many reasons, never tapped. High cost being one and ecological damages another. Both will prevent any long term large withdrawals of any of these ‘new’ sources.
You just don’t want to give up your wasteful life style…but you will.