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Page added on February 1, 2012
BP forecasts unconventional supply growth
The growth of unconventional energy supplies—including oil and gas from US shales, Canadian oil sands, and Brazilian deepwater production—will make the Western Hemisphere close to completely energy self-sufficient by 2030, BP PLC said in its latest annual outlook. This means that growth in the rest of the world, particularly Asia, will increasingly depend on the Middle East in particular for its oil requirements, it added.
“In fact, according to our 2030 outlook, because of the explosion of gas production in the US and in North America generally, and because of production improvements from oil sands in Canada and shale oil and deepwater in the US, we have North America becoming energy self-sufficient by 2030,” BP Chief Economist Christof Ruhl said.
Europe and former Soviet Union nations could achieve similar energy self-sufficiency by that time if they closely cooperated, he continued. “It will be more complicated because of global markets, and because the two regions don’t always see eye-to-eye,” he observed during a Jan. 30 presentation at the Center for Strategic & International Studies.
“We see continued demand growth for gas, with an increasing share coming from unconventional sources to the extent that the US will turn from an importer to an exporter,” Ruhl continued. Europe’s unconventional gas production won’t grow as quickly because it doesn’t have comparable access or infrastructure, and the region will have to increasingly rely on imports via pipelines and tanker-borne LNG, he indicated.
“China is a special case,” he said. “Right now, gas is only about 4.5% of its energy mix. We expect that to increase to 7%, initially by pipeline and LNG imports and ultimately by more domestic production. By 2030, China will consume roughly as much gas as Europe does today.”
US oil import dependence could drop from about half of its total supply now to around one-third by 2030 under BP’s latest annual outlook because of growing deepwater and shale formation production, Ruhl said. “The implications of North America—the US, Canada, and Mexico—becoming energy independent are massive,” he maintained. “Just think of all the discussions we have now about the Strait of Hormuz and whether the US has to send its naval fleet there to protect supply routes. We won’t be having them 20 years from today.”
6 Comments on "BP forecasts unconventional supply growth"
Ham on Thu, 2nd Feb 2012 12:01 am
There is no way Deepwater and Shale are going to make up for the shortfall. What this Pollyanna talk ignores is EROI yet again. Just to stay even is going to require way more energy than the ability to scale down imports. Absolute nonsense.
BillT on Thu, 2nd Feb 2012 1:19 am
This is another pile of BS from BP! They are pimping the alternate (expensive, ecologically destructive) oil and gas sources to get suckers…er…investors to lay out their savings.
I would say that by 2030, IF the world has not destroyed itself in a big war, and IF the world financial system survives it’s current meltdown, there will not be 1/2 the natural gas and oil we have now. But, since the first two events have a high probability of happening in the next 10 years, I think we will be lucky to have even half of today’s energy available at any price.
DC on Thu, 2nd Feb 2012 2:39 am
Maybe this is a coded way of saying that amerika will become an exporter of toxic frak-gas, because its citizens are too poor to make use of it themselves? Amerika will never be a net exporter of anything ever again, besides poorly built overprice weapons, CGI movies, and coke-cola. If this energy indepence shangri-la they dream of does come about, it will be because the consumption, car and FIRE economy are dead in the water, and no can afford the cheap energy they need to sustain the illusion we have an economy anymore.
As for BP, why this criminal organization even exists as a discreet entity still boggles me. By all rights, BP shoulda been finished the second that well blew.
Kenz300 on Thu, 2nd Feb 2012 6:32 am
The oil industry, like the oil producing countries, wants to keep everyone thinking that the oil supply is endless. They love it when the price spikes and they make all those windfall profits.
The era of cheap oil is over.
The Practician on Thu, 2nd Feb 2012 7:42 am
Yeah, the better forecast unconventional supply growth, or there isn’t any supply growth to forecast at all.
Have a look at this on Thu, 2nd Feb 2012 4:26 pm
A lot of stupidity: “Drill oil as fast as you can and you will be self sufficient”…non sense.
If you haven’t seen this lecture from a teacher in Colorado University, I think it is high time:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY&feature=related