The World in 2050: Four Forces

Trying to predict the future is always a dodgy enterprise, as everyone from the ancient prophets to recent prognosticators like Paul Ehrlich have learned the hard way. Whenever an author promises near or long-term events to anticipate, it’s good to take anything they write with a healthy dose of skepticism.

That said, contemplating the future can also be thought provoking. So with caveats in mind, residents of northern climates might wish to lend an ear to Laurence C. Smith, geography, earth and space sciences professor at UCLA. He believes the North will prosper in (as his title puts it) “The World in 2050.”

In this book, Smith embarks on what he calls a “thought experiment.” Looking at current trends in climate change, demographics, resource consumption and globalization, he has concluded that the northern rim countries (the eight nations that extend into the Arctic) will emerge as economic winners in the coming decades as the planet warms and the population climbs.

Smith splits the bulk of his book into two sections, one describing the reasons civilization will push northward in coming decades and the other listing the factors that will pull people in this direction. He limits his inquiry to areas where trends are already in place and leaves major but unpredictable events (a technological fix for warming or sudden, catastrophic climate shifts) largely out of his speculations. He briefly considers a few frightening scenarios late in the going, but doesn’t dwell on them.

In looking at what he believes will push civilization’s center of gravity northward, Smith hits on the usual suspects. By 2050 the human population is expected to hit 9 billion, with most of those people clustered in massively expanding metropolises. They will be consuming copious amounts of resources, causing an ever-rising level of demand for raw materials. Meanwhile, global trade agreements (barring a sudden reversal in present activity) will keep goods moving ever faster.

On the ecological side, current warming trends, driven by what Smith expects will be rising greenhouse emissions and increased water demands, will push agriculture north (among other things, climate models predict that rainfall will diminish in the temperate regions and increase at higher latitudes). What Smith foresees for substantial portions of America, Asia, Africa, and Europe is larger populations concentrated in huge cities, with a concurrent emptying out of the countryside. He also expects rising temperatures will prompt residents of these areas to consider migrating somewhere cooler.

The pull, meanwhile, will come from the opening of resources because of the melting polar ice cap (the largest undiscovered fields of oil and natural gas are suspected to lie under the Arctic Ocean), as well as the political and demographic conditions that currently prevail in the North.

Smith devotes considerable time to the current state of the North, pointing out that no other region has such a large array of countries with peaceful borders and a history of cooperation, especially since the end of the Cold War. While many other regions of the world are mired in wars and political tension, the northern nations have treaties and agreements that have kept their disputes manageable. Even as the various countries make conflicting claims over Arctic waters, they are working them out without the threat of military action.

Another factor in the North’s favor is its low population, coupled with fairly liberal immigration policies in most of its countries (Russia being the big exception.) Growing economic development in mineral extraction and fisheries, cooler climates than those soon to be found in the south, lots of available space and enhanced political freedom (again excepting Russia) will all draw migrants looking for opportunities.

It’s not all rosy, of course. Permafrost melting and shorter seasons for ice roads will complicate inland travel and development. Areas currently being mined or otherwise developed will become impossible to access except by air, rendering them too uneconomic to maintain, Smith believes.

Smith suspects the Arctic and far North will become more oriented towards a maritime economy than at present. The growing coastal towns and cities, however, will be threatened by rising sea levels. Furthermore, the economic growth, which Smith sees as hard to prevent, will wreak havoc on local environments and further aggravate warming with its extensive recovery and use of fossil fuels. Finally, the winters will be warmer than in the past, but they will still be long, cold and dark.

The Arctic Smith envisions, “will be rather like Nevada — a landscape nearly empty but with fast-growing towns fueled by a narrow range of industries. Its primary socioeconomic role in the 21st century will not be homestead haven but economic engine, shoveling gas, oil, minerals, and fish into the gaping global maw. These resources will help supply and grow cities around the world … ”

Depending on your outlook, this is either very good or very bad. But mostly it’s an expansion of what the North already is.

Smith takes a comprehensive view of what is transpiring here. He’s a scientist by training and understands climate change deeply, but he’s also a geographer with a firm grasp on demographics. While he’s not formally schooled in the discipline, he knows his way around economics as well. Despite being a brainiac, he writes clearly and engagingly. His work is entirely accessible to lay readers. Like all prognostications, this book is purely speculative and it’s only one man’s vision. How much of it will come true is anyone’s guess, but it offers readers much to consider.

The planet is changing. We need to do what Smith is doing and start thinking about how we’ll deal with it.