University of Alaska Professor predicts $5-plus gasoline

Reynolds, a professor of oil and energy economics at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, said he sees oil prices soaring in the next five to 10 years, “easily” reaching $200 per barrel or more.

That increase, roughly double the current price of oil, would translate into gasoline in the $5 to $10 range at the pump, he said.

“(Prices) are going to get higher … The progression is clear,” Reynolds said.

Reynolds, the author of a soon-to-be released book about global oil dependence called “Energy Civilization,” spoke Tuesday at a Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce luncheon about the growing demand for oil and the effect it will have on prices.

Reynolds said the current reality of “peak oil” — the period when global petroleum extraction begins to decline — and an expected surge in oil demand in developing countries will contribute to an upcoming price spike.

“We’re going to go through a tremendous 10- to 20-year difficult transition,” he said.

Reynolds said more developing nations are reaching a level of affluence that allows families to begin purchasing cars. In a country such as India, that could translate into millions more vehicles on the road, adding another contributor to worldwide demand for petroleum.

Meanwhile, extracting petroleum is becoming more difficult. While some new energy sources hold promise, such as shale oil, he said it will be tough to replace the role that traditional petroleum extraction has played in modern civilization.

Shale oil requires a huge amount of energy to extract, making its investment return different than traditional petroleum drilling. Gas, such as methane, requires massive up-front costs to create a distribution network.

Climbing oil prices may be good for the state treasury, which relies heavily on oil taxes. But Reynolds said those factors will be the continued force behind high gas prices in Alaska, despite the presence of an oil pipeline running through its backyard.

The difference between local gas prices and those in the Lower 48 spurs occasional calls for state investigations into price gouging. Seattle, for example, currently pays at least 40 cents less per gallon than Anchorage, according to the gasbuddy.com website.

Reynolds said Fairbanks’ size works against it when compared to larger Outside markets, along with the higher cost of doing business in Alaska. He said bigger, cheaper markets can create more competition and be more nimble in adjusting their prices, since those fixed costs can be spread over millions of customers.

“I don’t think we’re getting gouged,” he said. “We’re a small market, and small markets are more volatile than big markets.”

Anchorage Daily News