Dublin Seminar Oct 10th: Managing the Risks – Oil Scarcity & the Global Economy

Following up on our June seminar Energy Security and Competitiveness in a Rapidly Changing World, our next seminar expands on the recent warning from the IMF, published in their April 2011 World Economic Outlook, on the risks of oil scarcity to the global economy.

Access to affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy is a matter of national security, particularly so for a state such as Ireland, heavily dependent on increasingly expensive imported fossil fuels. Since the last seminar we have seen the unprecedented release by the International Energy Agency of their strategic oil reserve in an attempt to ease pressure on rising prices, further oil price volatility, and continuing economic stagnation in Europe and the US.

Dr. Michael Kumhof, a Deputy Chief at the International Monetary Fund will present his latest research on energy augmented macroeconomic models which formed the basis of Chapter 3 of the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook, entitled ‘Oil Scarcity, Growth, and Global Imbalances’. This work is a noteworthy departure from classical economic growth modeling methodologies. He will be joined by Dr. Robert Ayres (INSEAD) and Dr. Roger Bentley (UK ERC), who’s respective work on the role of energy in economic growth and oil production forecasts, were referenced in the IMF study.

This seminar will highlight how

traditional models of economic growth exclude energy as a factor of production
present a new model incorporating energy as a factor of production (Ayres)
present an overview of a comprehensive study of future oil production forecasts and their attendant risks (Bentley)
an updated IMF model for economic growth incorporating oil which considers different future availability scenarios (Kumhof)

Dr. Roger Bentley