Ireland’s Future and the Impact of Increasing Energy Prices

FEASTA, The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability have published work on four possible scenarios for Ireland in light of Peak Oil, asking:

• Will oil prices continue to rise or is this just a spike?
• Are we running out of oil?
• When will the supply of oil peak?
• What will happen then?
• How can we plan when the future is so uncertain?

Almost nothing about Ireland’s future energy supplies is certain except the fact that the world’s supplies of oil, coal and gas began running out on the day that they were first used. There are still huge supplies of coal but oil and gas are getting scarce and the amount of energy that humanity will be able to get from these two key fuels is expected to peak within the next few years and then start to decline.

In view of the uncertainty about the date on which the decline will begin, the pace at which it will proceed and the effect that it will have on energy prices, Feasta has prepared four scenarios which, taken together, set the boundaries of the range of possibilities. In other words, the future should have some of the scenarios’ characteristics provided that no major unexpected element enters the picture such as a widespread war, a plague which kills millions of people or a serious climate change event.

Energy Scenarios Ireland