Peak oil – are we sleepwalking into disaster?

Governments and oil companies have been silent over the ramifications of fossil fuel depletion, but we have now reached the moment for urgent debate on a future without cheap oil

Like climate change, peak oil is often perceived by the more pessimistic analysts as one of those apocalyptic conundrums where we are already past the tipping point – meaning that any solutions human ingenuity can deliver will simply mitigate the worst-case scenario. Certainly, oil-field discoveries have been in sharp decline since the 1970s. And there is a consensus that peak oil has already been reached, at some point between 2004 and 2008. This does not bode well at a time when huge emerging nations like China and India are experiencing energy-hungry industrial revolutions. China’s economic growth was 11 per cent last year and in India, it reached 9 per cent. Increased demand could soon outstrip depleted supplies.

But unlike climate change, politicians seem unwilling to encourage public debate about the ramifications of peak oil. There has been no shortage of government-commissioned reports into the problem, but most have been kept from public view – Britain and the US, for example, have maintained the cloak of secrecy by not publishing many findings. This could be because politicians are concerned that doom-laden messages – like the prediction that ordinary families will only be able to use their cars for emergencies within 10 years because of spiralling fuel prices – will cause panic and civil disobedience on the streets. Or, a more cynical view, might suggest that governments and oil companies are so deeply entwined – in some cases like Saudi Arabia and Iran they are, indeed, the very same thing and we all know about the intimate connections between BP and the political world here in the UK – that educating citizens on the need to move towards conservation and away from consumption would damage business and tax revenues and possibly, even, the foundations of capitalism itself.

But to frame the debate on acting to combat peak oil in a ‘capitalism versus socialism’ prism – as many also do with climate change, suggesting a red tinge to the green movement – does us no favours. Such dialogue will not result in the necessary progressive policies to reduce consumption or encourage research and development in vital green technologies to replace diminishing fossil fuels. Instead, it will lead to adversarial and polarised discussions – with the end result being that no significant action is taken. A new research group at Keele University, in the UK, led by Professor Bulent Gokay and Dr Farzana Shain is attempting to create a more mature approach, especially among young people. Working under the title Facing the future: peak oil and children – the group, which PublicServiceEurope.com has been asked to become part of – aims to consider issues including consumption habits and creating positive change in the future.

Acknowledging the current confusion and lack of interest in the topic – Gokay urges politicians, educators and citizens to grasp the nettle before it is too late. “Every aspect of modern industrial life requires oil, we live in a petroleum landscape because it is still the most dense energy form we have ever found,” he explains. “But discoveries are declining and the oil is running out. It is a finite resource because it takes millions of years to renew. Only the Middle East and Caspian Sea region now have spare capacity, everywhere else has reached peak – including the United Kingdom, Norway, China, Mexico, Venezuela, Indonesia, Russia, Syria, Libya, Nigeria and Qatar. The cheap oil is already gone – when you have to drill deeper and deeper and in regions like the Arctic, it is much more expensive and the quality is not as good and not so easy to refine – due to the high sulphur content.”

In addition, the world’s largest oil companies exist in nations where democracy and human rights are not top of the government’s priority list, to say the least. Names such as the Saudi Arabian Oil Company, the National Iranian Oil Company, the Qatar General Petroleum Corporation and the Iraq National Oil Company are not well known to citizens in the West – but their geopolitical power is enormous, easily dwarfing the likes of Exxon-Mobil, BP and Royal Dutch/Shell. We know that 17 per cent of our energy is used for producing food – through oil for fertilizers, pesticides, packaging and distribution. And more than 90 per cent of energy consumed is from fossil fuels. They drive transport, sewage management and the defence industry as well as the production of plastics, water, pharmaceuticals and electricity. Even former Shell chairman Lord Oxburgh once admitted: “It may be too late to do anything about it (peak oil) by the time we are fully aware?”

So what will this mean for future generations in practical terms? “Oil prices will have to rise further to justify deep-water drilling,” says Gokay. “You cannot stop this or control it; it’s simply a fact of economic life and physics rather than the fault of greedy oil companies or speculators. There is no long-term solution except to reduce our energy consumption. It’s not just about using bicycles, but radically reorganising society and there is no reason to think that will happen. Oil ruled the 20th century and shortage of oil will rule the 21st century. This is the secret ticking time bomb under the global capitalist system; we are nearing a real emergency scenario. In less than 10 years, many ordinary people will not be able to afford to use their cars.”

Of course, optimists suggest fossil fuel alternatives like nuclear fusion or green technologies like solar and wind power could fill the void left by oil. Even shale gas is being talked of as a viable replacement for oil. But Gokay feels that investment – from both governments and the private sector – in non-oil exploration and green technologies is still “at a symbolic level at the moment”. He adds: “The trouble is that organisations and individuals think in terms of their own lifetimes – and politicians think about five-year election cycles rather than the long-term. We are sleepwalking into disaster and we need to educate our young people on what peak oil is really all about. As the Arabic saying goes ‘my father rode a camel, I drive a car, my son flies an airplane, his son will ride a camel’.”

His sentiments are echoed by professor of earth science, at Keele University, Chris King. “Peak oil is a complex abstract concept, but the world is soon going to be facing an energy crisis. We are past the peak as far as oil is concerned and we are going downhill.” Meanwhile, Keele fellow Dr Matthew Wyman wants to see the issue aired in wider society, but in language that is not alarmist and still leaves people with some hope. “We shouldn’t just talk about apocalyptic visions, but the sort of world we want to create,” he adds. Quite right, but before refining the debate – we must first ensure that the talks begin, so that scarcity is not the defining factor in the lives of the next generation of children.

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