US Oil Consumption

The above graph shows US weekly petroleum products supplied (EIA) along with a nine week centered moving average to try to smooth out the noise a bit.  Data begin in 2000 and go through the week of July 1st 2011.  You can see that the high prices since the beginning of 2011 were causing a contraction in oil consumed (and I assume this was important in the economic slowdown in Q2 of 2011).

Since the end of April, when prices peaked, consumption has started to rise again.  Here’s a closer-in graph just showing 2009-2011, along with prices:

Absent other developments*, I’d expect that a continuation of this trend will lead to an improvement in the US economy in the second half, which in turn will lead to higher oil prices again.

*This is a caveat wide enough to drive a truck through when it comes to the oil markets.