When the oil runs out…

The most pessimistic analysts say peak oil production from all possible sources will be in 2015 and will reach 90 million barrels per day (bpd).

Scientists predict the level of 90m bpd will last 30 years, so that major changes will come soon after 2030.

And they are serious, for the 90 per cent of total world transport depends on oil.

Scientists and members of the association for the study of impoverishment of oil and gas believe the key date should be regarded as not a day when oil runs out, and the time when its production would peak.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that by 2030, the world’s energy needs will grow by 50pc to 60pc.

What does the future hold for us?

Natural gas reserves – the best to date fuel for power plants – have also begun to dwindle. In addition, many of them are located in unstable regions.

Reserves of coal – the fuel of the industrial revolution – are relatively rich.

But here the problems of preservation of the environment are felt particularly acutely because the combustion of coal produces the most greenhouse gases.

Based on the fact that access to affordable coal will be saved, the IEA predicts an increase in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to 50pc.

However, rising prices or the depletion of hydrocarbon reserves can make other fuels relevant and nuclear energy is the first in the queue.

According to World Nuclear Association, the world has about 440 commercial nuclear reactors, which account for 16pc of electricity generated.

In major developing countries such as China and India, nuclear energy is an important source of electricity, and it goes hand in hand with military programmes.

However, the uranium reserves in the world are also quite limited.

Analysts debate how soon the world will overcome uranium shortage.

Some believe that we can talk about decades. This period may be slightly increased, with other types of reactors that produce large amounts of fissile material.

There is another technology – the thermonuclear reaction. Despite high expectations, even its most ardent supporters acknowledge that it will be available only in a few decades.

Maybe, it’s time to use solar energy directly, photovoltaic panels covering the planet; however, the cost of this project is five times greater than the cost of production of gas and coal.

You can get energy from other sources – wind, tides and waves, but the potential of these technologies is limited, not least because they cannot produce energy permanently.

Perhaps the way out is focus on conservation as opposed to production of energy to obtain a fair balance between the costs and benefits of green technology.

Experts have painted a rather bleak picture of the energy future of the planet.

Let us, however, be optimistic about the intellectual abilities of scientists, for the future is being born today in laboratories.

Gulf Daily