We’re Dancing as Fast as We Can

Back in the days of the 1920’s and ‘30s a fad known as Marathon Dancing swept the nation at the height of the Great Depression. In these contests, entrants paid a small entry fee to dance until they dropped. The last couple standing, that the judges deemed actually were dancing would take home a small trophy, and maybe a $500-1000 prize. Tens or hundreds of thousands flocked to these contests, in an effort to be the last one on the floor dancing, and take home the last chance of earning some money. This was no “Dancing With the Stars” competition. The stakes were high. Winning might mean having shelter and food for a couple of months. These competitions went on round the clock for several days in some cases. To narrow the field after several hours, the band would throw in a fast paced song such as the Charleston every once in a while, and the judges would tap on the shoulders those who couldn’t keep up. The standard response of those eliminated was “We’re dancing as fast as we can”. To put it another way, keeping up at this pace is unsustainable.

Over the past eighteen months or so, I feel like that has been my standard mental response to the ever increasing mass of peak oil news, as that has now speeded up. Three or four years ago, scanning the various websites on the subject of peak oil, one would find an article that would invite a closer inspection as to its meaning for you personally. You would have two or three days to process its impact, then another article attracted your interest. Each of these bits and pieces of news offered the chance to put another dot on your personal connect-the-dots puzzle to try to outline a picture of what this “Peak Oil” dance was going to mean for you.
Now the “Peak Oil” band is playing nothing but fast paced dance music, and instead of one or two significant developments every two or three days, I am getting five or six per day. I am dancing as fast as I can, and still I can’t keep up. I look at the MSM evening news and I see nightly reports of people dancing as fast as they can to the news at the pump and the grocery store every day, and they are having trouble keeping up. We all are collectively “dancing as fast as we can”; it is just that some of us have a good idea of what the next song for this marathon dance will be. And it isn’t a slow number!

At $4 a gallon, some will not be able to keep up and will drop out of this dance. They won’t buy any more new cars or big screen TVs, iPhones or ipads. Their part in this competition is over. At $4.50 a gallon many more will find the pace impossible to keep up, even though they are dancing as fast as they can. Not only will individuals have problems keeping up, but businesses and government entities will also find the dance too fast for them. The dance card tempo we are facing is unsustainable.

I can remember back in 1973 with the oil embargo, when the first fast song was thrown on the oil dance card. I lived in an oil producing state then. The Highway Patrol was limited to a maximum of 50 miles per shift, and so their procedure was to go park on the side of a highway and if someone drove past going too fast, to turn on the emergency light bar to try to caution and to slow them down. Travelling the interstates then meant you were pretty much on your own. I can remember driving close to 110 miles on the interstate one early weekday evening in February of 1974, and not seeing another vehicle the whole distance. That was a very eerie feeling, and a humbling experience. Then the oil music slowed down until 1979, with another oil embargo, and again we were faced with another fast paced song on the dance card.

The judges started tapping many in 1979 about their elimination. Chrysler needed a quick transfusion of government money to keep on its feet and still look like the company was dancing. Political dynasties started feeling the tap on the shoulder to quit dancing. The tempo of the dance had picked up. Politicians were swept off the dance floor with one simple question; “Are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?”

For a while after1979, the tempo of the oil dance slowed, and we thought we might actually have a chance to finish this marathon safely. Today the tempo of the dances is increasing, in some cases, drastically. We realize that our collective condition is probably unable to complete all of the dances on the dance card. We’re dancing as fast as we can, will we be able to finish the peak oil marathon dance with anything but blistered feet and worn out minds and bodies?

I wish I knew.

Chuck

Peak Oil Blues Blog by Chuckwks