Peak Oil: the end of the world as we know it?

That the whole world’s economic and social models completely depend on the consumption of fossil fuels is perhaps a well-known fact. Amongst these, petroleum has been called “the life bloodof modern civilization” (Hirsch:2009).  Beyond its use as a raw material for the manufacture of such products as plastics and medicines, it provides 99% of the energy used in transportation: cars,trucks, ships and planes all move on oil (IPTOES:2009, p.5).  As modern economy can be argued to be heavily dependent on cheap transportation of goods and people, cheap oil is essential for its continued working. However, fossil fuels are by nature finite resources and there are those who say that a shortage of petroleum is imminent, a crisis the size of which the world has never seen. Many of these proponents of what is known as “peak oil theory” go as far as saying this would be the end of the world as we know it. The aim of this essay is to examine the validity of these claims and explore their implications should these predictions turn out to be correct.  Before delving into a discussion of this issue, it seems essential to first present a crucial piece of background. It is necessary to note that all “peak oil” theories are based on the Hubbert peak theory,which posits that mineral resources are not extracted at a constant rate, but rather follow a production curve. This theory is based on several assumptions: firstly, that the resources which are easiest to extract and thus more profitable are extracted first; secondly, that the likelihood of finding new deposits of a resource depends on the total amount of the resource available; and thirdly, that resources are exploited with maximum efficiency. Given these postulates, the production curve predicted by Hubbert’s theory is a symmetrical bell-shaped graph, according to which production will grow exponentially until reaching a peak, and then it will dramatically drop in symmetry with the increase. In simple terms, this means that after reaching its peak, the production of oil will inevitably and irreversibly plunge.So, the questions are now how valid this theory is and whether it can be applied to the world production of oil. Those who believe so point out that it has been used to successfully predict yearly oil production of specific countries and areas in a plethora of cases. Most memorably, it is very often pointed out that Marion King Hubbert successfully predicted in a 1956 paper