PO.com: Weekly Petroleum Supply Report 7.21.10

[quote]Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending July 16, 2010
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.5 million barrels per day during the week ending July 16, 48 thousand barrels per day above the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91.5 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.5 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 10.0 million barrels per day last week, up by 696 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 9.5 million barrels per day, 203 thousand barrels per day above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 1.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 174 thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 0.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 353.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.9 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 5.1 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 19.2 million barrels per day, up by 3.0 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.4 million barrels per day, up by 2.0 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.6 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 9.0 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 10.9 percent higher over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.[/quote]
[quote]
Unleaded 16-Jul
Beginning Inv 221.0
Imports 6.447 0.921
Production 66.556 9.508
Available 294.003
Ending Inv 222.2
Balance 71.803
Balance/day 10.26
Prod Supplied 9.435
Balance Gap 0.82
Actual Change 1.2
Deviation from Forecast 0.2

Distillates 16-Jul
Beginning Inv 162.6
Imports 1.022 0.146
Production 31.213 4.459
Available 194.835
Ending Inv 166.6
Balance 28.235
Inv Balance/Gap 4.03 0.58
Prod Supplied 3.358
Actual Change 4.0
Deviation from Forecast 3.1

Crude Oil 16-Jul
Beginning Inv 353.1
Production 38.22 5.46
Imports 64.967 9.281
SPR+/Supply – 0 0
Total Available 456.287
Provided to Ref 108.619 15.517 91.5
Ending Inventory 353.5
Inv Balance/Gap 347.668 5.832
Actual Change 0.4
Deviation from Forecast -0.3

pup55 Experts Actual
Crude Oil 0.70 -1.2 0.4
Unleaded 0.98 1.10 1.2
Distillates 0.9 1.6 4.0
[/quote]

The EIA archive states that this week’s refinery utilization is the highest it has been for the equivalent week since 2007, and it also says that from here on out, it is likely that utilization will go down, because typically we are within a week or two of the maximum production for the season by mid-July.

We for sure don’t need any more distillate production. I think there are two curious things about distillates: One is that the demand is down to 3.36 mbpd and the other is that despite this, the refiners are still producing a lot of “distillates”, the gasoline production has backed off steadily for the last month or so, as a fraction of total output. Yeah, I know, ostensibly the 3.36 mbpd is higher than it was a year ago but that still does not mean that it is good. The pup55 archive of doom says that in 2007, we were at 4.1 mbpd distillates supplied, which means that we are still down nearly 20% from the high point. I do not know what happened since the week of July 2 when we were up around 3.9 mbpd for distillate demand, it is seasonal for it to hit the bottom about now, but this suggests actually that the trucking business is really no better than it was in 2009 or even 2008 for that matter…..if there is a better economic indicator, it would be wonderful if someone would point it out. I think things are pretty weak right now.

My estimate of crude oil imports of 10.0 was right on the money, we are catching up from the hurricanes. I think maybe there are still some residual effects from the hurricane three weeks ago on this system and it may be another week or so before we finally catch up. Since crude oil imports pretty much drive the inventory it is not surprising that I was so close.

Unleaded: My little demand algorithm has been right on the money lately, I was only off by .05 on demand, and not too far off on anything else.

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