Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on July 8, 2010
Peak Oil, Time, And Population
Population size is directly correlated with oil supply. Oil has been the main source of energy within industrial society. It is only with abundant oil that a large global population has been possible, and it was oil that allowed population to grow so quickly. [1]
If oil production drops to half of its peak amount in 11 years, therefore, world population must also drop by half, i.e. to 3.5 billion. A drop from 7 billion to 3.5 means that, as with oil production, the annual population decline rate will be 6%.
But how will it be possible to reduce the population from 7 billion to 3.5 billion in 11 years? Would such a reduction be possible with a program of voluntary cessation of all childbirth, but with no other drastic global change in human behavior? Would a no-child policy be workable? Unfortunately, such a program would be quite unlikely to succeed. In the first place, in order to have any significant effect the program would have to be both global and immediate. In addition, most of the world is hardly amenable to the suggestion of a one-child policy, such as that of China, so it is not likely that it would tolerate a no-child policy.
In any case, cutting the birth rate without increasing the death rate would not have a great enough effect on the final numbers. Since most of the people now living would still be alive in 2021, the population would not be reduced sufficiently. There is, in fact, no feasible political means of reducing population by 6 percent annually.
The only solution will be famine, and that solution will not be one that is chosen by humans. It will be chosen by Nature, as she does for so many other species. The process will be set in place by the ubiquitous and systemic decline in resources, and the consequent decline in industrial production. Without fossil fuels, agricultural yields will decline to about 30 percent. [7, 8, 9] The famine has already started, to judge from the decline in world food supplies. [3, 4] Roughly similar declines will occur in everything from mining, electricity, and manufacturing, to transportation and communication. [2, 6]
Planning for such a scenario should have been started long ago. Even at this late date, however, what is needed is to accept the facts and to ease the way for those relatively few who will constitute the future of humanity. At least on a small scale, such a program will succeed.
4 Comments on "Peak Oil, Time, And Population"
KenZ300 on Fri, 9th Jul 2010 10:38 am
Resources are limited.
People thought population growth was not.
Limited resources will collide with population growth resulting in slower population growth and possible wars for resources. Limited food, water and oil will limit economic development and growth.
Edpeak on Fri, 9th Jul 2010 10:59 am
“If oil production drops to half of its peak amount in 11 years, therefore, world population must also drop by half, i.e. to 3.5 billion”
Non-sequitor. Does not follow. I’m ALREADY ON YOUR SIDE as far as, I agree we need to end the “never ending exponential growth” model for both population AND global per capita resource consumption.
But the facts and logic are already enough on our side that we don’t need to exaggerate, or “twist” logic into “population must decline by exactly the same amount, in exactly the same number of years.”
You know that’s not true, either the author is hopeless and actually believes the “must drop to 3.5 billion” in exactly “11 years” nonsense, or else they are being sloppy in an “ends justify the means” poor argument.
We who take these issues seriously must not let that go on, any more. Out of respect for the truth, and out of also not wanting articles whose twisted logic or exaggerated claims do more to hurt than help the cause.
Edpeak on Fri, 9th Jul 2010 11:10 am
“The only solution will be famine,”
Ah, you predict that at least 3.5 Billion people will starve to death in the next 11 years then?
“Without fossil fuels, agricultural yields will decline to about 30 percent. ”
So you are predicting that oil will go down to zero mbd? No? Oh, you’re deliberately vague, just to be dramatic, we get it now! “Disaster Porn” is fun?
“Even at this late date, however, what is needed is to accept the facts..”
I see, we should just “accept” that 3.5 billion will die and not try to prevent it. Very nice thinking…not! Why do we public anything that is sufficiently “Disaster Porn” to get eyeballs to webpages and do more harm to the cause than help it?
What’s needed is non-hype and non-distortion, not exaggeration, not Disaster Porn, but constructive, repeat, constructive steps to minimize the damage and built as many useful institutions as possible.
That just can’t compete with Disaster Hype though can it? 🙁
Tim on Sun, 11th Jul 2010 3:57 pm
I agree with edpeak on the “disaster porn” thing, but I would also point out something, without choosing any side regarding this article. There are numerous precedents that show that a civilization or a population (animals) that reach the boundaries of their eco-system (hope you know what I mean, I’m not english-speaking) don’t crash over a period of decades, but over a few years or even a season. If you’re living of wall-markt like there’s no tomorrow up untill the last can of food, everyone’s gone about a month later, even if you were living the good life a month earlier.