What if the Oil Just Kept Flowing?

Of course, this thought experiment suffers from the reality that crude oil prices, in a global market, don’t jump based on a single region’s troubles. In fact, prices are lower now than they were in late March. (And when oil prices do jump, that prompts conservation in rich countries but real economic hardship in poor ones, so it’s not something to be wished for.)

Separately, there’s an encouraging sidenote in comparing the two oil catastrophes. The fleeing Iraqi troops didn’t just burn oil; they also opened valves sending some 8 million barrels of crude into the Persian Gulf, making that incident the biggest oil spill in history (so far). While sharp drops in shrimp populations were seen shortly afterward, international studies found that the oil had not done long-term damage to corals or fish stocks in that gulf. Let’s hope the same holds true this time.

NYTimes