Endgame: USA

…A number of economists such as Dr James Hamilton (PDF 637KB) and Jeff Rubin attribute the GFC to the oil price spike of 2007-08. This is not particularly surprising with oil price spikes having been followed by recessions consistently since the 1970s. With depletion rates of oilfields running at 6.7 per cent a year, and the significant cut in investment as a result of the GFC/oil price crash, the conditions are set for another oil price spike in the not too distant future. Indeed it appears that the global economy has reached an inflection point where the cost of bringing new oil to market has approached the point where it becomes economically damaging.

There are numerous other potential fire starters. Examples might be civil unrest, another Hurricane Katrina type climate event, a major terrorist attack on a US city, a Tet Offensive, Blackhawk down or Abu Ghraib type incident in Iraq or Afghanistan and probably many others. In the complex, non-linear world that we live in, it is impossible to predict exactly how the collapse maybe triggered and subsequently unfold. What can be identified, however, is that there are enough trends in place to suggest that the long term stability of the US is questionable and that there are enough triggers, either alone or in combination, to suggest that some form of collapse is possible, if not probable.

Energy Bulletin