Peak Oil : IEA's predictions seeming more and more infeasible with time

On November 9, the Uppsala University in Sweden published a report titled “The Peak of the Oil Age – The Uppsala World Energy Outlook”. The report performs an analysis of the oil production forecast done by the International Energy Agency in 2008. One day before the release of the IEA 2009 edition of its World Energy Outlook report, the team of researchers notably pointed to a world oil supply in 2030 some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA’s predictions. Dr Michael Lardelli, one of the co-authors of the study, answers Scitizen’s questions.

What was your reaction after the Guardian cited earlier this month an anonymous whistlelblower alleging that the IEA had been distorting its true view on peak oil over US pressure in order to prevent public panic?

Personally I was surprised that the whistleblowers should reveal this information on the IEA distortions. I wonder if it was a coincidence that the “Peak Of The Oil Age” paper was released on the very same day that the allegations came out? Certainly, word was spreading that the Global Energy Systems group in Uppsala had reanalysed the IEA data and their result implied that the peak of oil production was last year, and that a scientific publication was being prepared. Professor Aleklett who leads the Global Energy Systems group had presented this story in numerous venues in early June of this year. One would expect this to create some tension within the IEA. On the other hand, the WEO 2009 report was due for release two days later with little change in the production volume prognosis so the whistleblowers may have been prompted by the fact that the IEA’s predictions were seeming more and more infeasible with time.

Scitizen