Russia plays pipeline politics

While the United States is engrossed in Iraq and Afghanistan – even planning a troop surge in the latter – a new and bigger strategic risk looms in a much more sensitive area – Europe and Russia. The challenge is about energy and influence in the “old continent”, still the richest industrial area in the world.

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South Stream becomes a strategic weapon by which Russia can get the upper hand in Europe. As with the best chess players, for Russia, a situation of defense because of Nabucco can become a position of attack. It can re-establish the former Soviet influence, attempt to reach the Mediterranean after three centuries of failures, and take on a dominant position in Europe.

South Stream is supported by the Russian state and therefore has no funding problems, in contrast to Nabucco, which is a commercial project and needs to find funding in the market. A simple political and media push for South Stream could derail Nabucco, which by itself has many political and technical problems before it can be implemented. For example, there is the big question of how to cross the Caspian Sea without clear agreements from bordering countries such as Russia and Iran. Once Nabucco is shipwrecked, South Stream may gain steam and look even more viable.

With South Stream, Russia has one more instrument with which to negotiate from a point of strength: other oil- and gas-producing countries could agree to tag along in Europe. It could become the glue for a new kind of OPEC centered on Russia. Pipelines are strategically important because they are a long-term pact between states, they are very expensive, and completing them takes many years. They can’t be changed easily, unlike shipping lines, which in theory can be diverted to another port at will.

This could have global consequences. If Russia corners the European gas market, it gains a strong hand in also determining overall prices for oil to America and Asia. The latter is the fastest-growing consumer of energy and strategically interested in gaining a supply of gas in Central Asia that is independent from Russia.

Asia Times