Page added on August 24, 2009
When I published the results on The Oil Drum of my New World Model, based on World3 (the “Limits to Growth” model) – see here, many of the questions and issues that people had were around EROEI. So I’m writing this article to clarify how the model uses EROEI and the results in some alternative scenarios where EROEI is changed in different ways.
In the World3 model, the decline of non-renewable resources happens as fast as people can consume them. In other words, there isn’t any limitation imposed to how fast non-renewable resources can be exploited, leading to a very abrupt decline when it happens. It could be said that one of the conclusions of the new model is that peak oil and peak fossil fuels is good news for civilization, because it gives a natural limit to how fast we can deplete our resources, preventing us from depleting them so fast that it would lead to a complete collapse.
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