No friends, only partners in pipeline realpolitik

Vladimir Putin was in Turkey yesterday on a mission that demanded rather subtler skills than white-water rafting or fire-building. Fresh from his photogenic Siberian mini-break, Russia’s prime minister was in Ankara to persuade his hosts to sign up to South Stream, the proposed new gas pipeline from Russia to the European U-nion under the Black Sea.

The project needs Ankara’s consent because the planned route passes through its territorial waters, but it is not in Turkey’s strategic interests.

Mr Putin’s success – at a price – was a perfect example of pipeline realpolitik.
Only last month, there was jubilation in the European U-nion as Turkey at last signed up for Nabucco, the 3,300km pipeline project to bring gas from central Asia to Europe, via Turkey, which is often seen as a rival to South Stream.

Yesterday’s agreement between Mr Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, his Turkish counterpart, may seem to make a mockery of that rejoicing. In fact, it is simply confirmation that when vital interests are at stake, there are no friends, only partners.

The principal motive for South Stream is Russia’s ambition to bypass Ukraine, which is the transit country for 80 per cent of Russia’s gas exports to the EU. As became obvious in January, in the latest flare-up of its long-running dispute with Ukraine over gas prices, Russia has no way to cut off the gas to Ukraine without also cutting off most of its European customers.

Once South Stream and its sister pipeline Nord Stream, intended to run under the Baltic, are laid, that will no longer be the case. Ukraine will be isolated, and probably a less salient issue in European politics than it is today.

However, South Stream also bypasses Turkey, which has been a regular customer for Russian gas through the Blue Stream pipeline, and must fear that some of that gas will instead be diverted to the EU. To buy Ankara’s support, Russia is expected to help with a long list of important projects for Turkey, including an oil pipeline from Samsun in the north of the country to Ceyhan in the south, and one or more nuclear power stations, fulfilling a long-cherished Turkish dream.

Financial Times