Andrew McKillop: Making world cities sustainable

We can be sure that cities, defined as relatively dense and large human settlements, have existed for at least 8,000 years. Uruk for example, probably dating from 5,500 BC, extended over at least 6 square kilometres and probably attained 50,000 to 75,000 population … today’s population of what remains of Uruk, or Ur, is low and oriented to the vagaries of tourism, archeological visits and the Iraq war. We therefore cannot be sure cities are sustainable, if we extend this adjective to mean ‘permanent’ or ‘very long lasting.’
All these popular responses to the question ‘What is Sustainability?’ tend to exclude economic growth, we can note, with economic sustainability itself drawing a long list of component issues and concerns from opinion poll respondants.

The global economy means growth, but economic growth itself is now an endangered species, simply because of its previous excess, rather than success. Being an endangered species is however nothing special in an era of mass extinctions, like today, an era many scientists call the 6th Mass Extinction. This is unlike previous mass extinctions in geological history because it is man made and because species are being lost, that is wiped out by human beings at the fantastic rate of about 30 000 per year. Back of envelope calculations on a long, and increasing list of critical basic resources, from energy, water and food through to lithium metal and soil resources, show that conventional or ‘classic’ economic growth is for the least fragile and unsustainable. In other words conventional economic growth does not and cannot last a long time, and does harm the environment.

One particularly easy back-of-envelope calculation is what oil supply would be needed for China and India to achieve or attain average OECD oil consumption rates, of about 14 barrels per person per year in 2008. In China’s case its present oil demand would need to expand more than 5 times, and India’s current oil demand would increase by 9 times. This is entirely impossible.

This could be the end of an era we can call ‘The Petro Keynesian Growth Interval,’ a swan song to all previous models of resource crunching, oil burning, climate changing, environmentally predatory economic growth. Back-of-envelope calculations of what would, in theory, be needed for full globalisation of all urban populations, to achieve present OECD average per capita consumption rates of energy, food, water, metals and minerals, and building materials simply indicates one bottom line: it is not possible. One basic result of this impossibility, which accepts the reality of resource, environment and climate limits, is the fast emerging theme of “Cleantech and Sustainability.” This applies right across the economy and society, and to urban systems.

This theme is overdue for new resource efficient operation, and restructuring of present cities, the rational planning of new cities, and organized engagement in sustainable urban and urban regional expansion. As we know, among the key concepts driving interest in “Cleantech and Sustainability” we find a recurring focus on resource economizing. This in turn generates a simple slogan with profound real world implications: Use less and use better.

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