Do you believe in 'peak oil'?

Debate has raged about ‘peak oil’ ever since Shell geologist M. King Hubbert first outlined the theory in 1956. It’s the idea that once around half the world’s reserves of oil have been extracted, production enters a slow and inevitable decline that no amount of investment can reverse. Believers in peak oil argue that once it becomes apparent that the peak is near, or even past, prices will rise sharply, and permanently. Detractors say the theory ignores geology and technological progress.

YES, says Matthew R. Simmons, founder of Simmons International:

“Many supposed energy experts refute peak oil, and mistakenly think the term means that we are running out of oil. Peak Oil does not mean “running out of oil”. The world will likely never run out of oil, but the flow of usable oil has almost certainly already passed its high-water mark. Over the next five to ten years, our current oil supply will likely decline by as much as 15 to 25 per cent. In the meantime, despite the recent recession fears, the world’s planned use of more oil is staggering.

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