IEA output forecasts are 'outside reality': peak oil proponent

Geneva (Platts) — In a direct shot at the most widely followed estimates of future oil
flows, a leading peak oil proponent said the International Energy Agency’s
supply projections are significantly inaccurate.

In the keynote address to the Platts “New Challenges for Crude Oil”
conference in Geneva, Swedish physics professor Kjell Aleklett said his
research team’s analysis differs significantly from the IEA’s.

The reason for the different conclusions is narrow but significant: a
large difference in estimating the rate of depletion of both fields that are
to be developed, and fields that have yet to be discovered but will be by
2030. There are other factors widening the gap between the two, but it is this
difference in approach that provides most of the gap.

Aleklett is not just a researcher; he also is president of the
Association for the Study of Peak Oil. But his latest work, which has yet to
be peer reviewed, was done in his role at Sweden’s Uppsala University.

The gap between his work and that of the IEA is huge. IEA projections of
liquids supply puts total output at 101.5 million b/d by 2030. Aleklett’s
research sees it at a little more than 75 million b/d.

Platts