When will Russia re-engage Asia-Pacific?

Russia is a big country with a big “if”. If Russia’s development plan works, about 70 percent of Russia’s 142 million people will attain a middle class living standard by 2020 (see The Plan 2020 at www.kremlin.ru). Russia’s GDP per capita will increase from the current US$12,000 to $30,000. If this happens, Russia will likely elevate itself to become the fifth largest economy after the US, China, India, Japan, and hence, regain its old status as Eurasia’s preponderant power.

Today, the Asia-Pacific region is “only” located in the fifth circle of Russian foreign policy. Russia will likely pay more attention to the region when her relationship with NATO, and thus her confidence in the security of her Western border, improves.
But Russian elites are fully aware that Russia’s future is bound to the Asia Pacific because the region today accounts for 57 percent of the world’s GDP, 48 percent of world trade and over 40 percent of direct foreign investments.

Russia is a member of APEC and currently chairs the Special Task Group on Mining and Metallurgy within this organization.

While APEC’s share of Russia’s foreign trade is “only” about 18 percent (in 2007), far bellow the share of EU, due to its geographical proximity, APEC will be important for the development of Siberia and far eastern Russia, a region rich in oil and gas.

Just like the EU, the Asia-Pacific is a large consumer of energy. And Russia, which is one of the world’s main suppliers of gas, is now promoting a gas cartel that, according to Russia, would ensure uninterrupted supplies of energy to the Asia-Pacific region.

Jakarta Post