Book review: Ungainly friendship

Review of: Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing and the New Geopolitics by Bobo Lo

The Sino-Russian relationship is unequal, argues Lo, due to the gradual shift in the bilateral balance of power in China’s favor. Russia’s aggregate military strength still exceeds that of China, so much so that the former does not hesitate to sell hi-tech weaponry to the latter. But in the economic sphere, China is the dominant partner as a knowledge-based and “post-modern” industrial juggernaut, while Russia remains a petro-state. The bilateral terms of trade are so asymmetrical that it looks as though “a modernizing China is exploiting a backward Russia for its energy and timber”.
The Sino-Russian energy relationship enjoys complementarities, but it, too, has not evaded inclement weather. China’s bargaining ploys to obtain Russian oil and gas at discounted rates mean Europe remains a far more attractive market for Moscow. Flip-flops on the East Siberian-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline are symptomatic of the uncertain energy links between China and Russia. The pipeline agreement unraveled in 2003 when Japan offered Russia a more lucrative deal to construct a pipeline that bypasses China altogether. But the Russo-Japanese arrangement collapsed in 2006 due to their territorial dispute, turning the tide back in Beijing’s favor. The unpredictability of Russian decision-making has led Beijing to restrict its demand for Russian oil to “non-dependent levels”. (p 147) Putin’s blueprint of “Asianizing” Russian energy markets have therefore floundered.

Asia Times