Kurt Cobb: We must make a lot of mistakes quickly

We often think of progress these days as coming from carefully planned research conducted by government- or corporate-funded laboratories with large staffs of scientists and technicians. As it turns out, many of the key innovations in history have arrived serendipitously or resulted from trial and error.

Most people know the story of Alexander Fleming’s discovery of penicillin. He wasn’t looking for antibiotics, but simply noticed that a certain area on one of his cultures was devoid of bacteria. He deduced that the mold he observed was producing a substance that inhibited bacterial growth.


As for trial and error, when we think of modern airplanes, we don’t normally imagine that their current configuration is largely a product of trial and error. In fact, the Wright brothers spent much of their time testing models in wind tunnels to observe their performance. This method is still used today for modern aircraft design though computer simulations have made it possible to evaluate the most promising designs before going to the expense of building and testing actual models. Today, an occupation called test pilot still survives, proving that despite all of our vaunted technology, we must yet rely on trial and error even in the most technological of pursuits. The modern management argot for this is: “Fire, ready, aim.”

It should come as no surprise then that efforts to create a sustainable society will require a lot of trial and error. This is true in part because we are still only starting to understand what practices in areas such as building, farming, transportation and energy production might be sustainable in the long run. (It is also true because people differ on what they mean by “sustainable” though that deserves a discussion all its own.)

The rather leisurely pace of early 20th century life in which the Wright brothers did their first experiments with aeronautical engineering has been replaced by the breakneck pace of modern 21st century society, a society which finds itself hurtling toward a rendezvous with limits in energy, water, soil and population. Hence, the admonition from Pat Murphy, the current executive director of what is now called the Arthur Morgan Institute for Community Solutions, that we must make a lot of mistakes quickly.

Energy Bulletin