Is Peak Oil Almost Here?

In 1956, Hubbert published his curve-fitting prediction that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. He used the U.S. production history up to that point to set the shape of the curve and an estimate of the amount of oil that would ultimately be produced to set the area encompassed by a complete curve.

U.S. production in fact peaked in 1970, inspiring a generation of oil “peakists” to apply Hubbert’s approach to world oil (Science, 21 August 1998, p. 1128). As of 1998, they broadly agreed that world oil would reach its peak by now or at least by the middle of the next decade. In fact, production outside oil-rich OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) has not risen since 2004, despite years of encouragement by high oil prices. And total world production has gone nowhere since 2005.

ENN