India Rings Alarm Bells on Monsoon Prediction

An Indian government research body on Thursday forecast dismal rains in the first half of the four-month monsoon season, creating uncertainty about farm growth and crop yields in the farm-dependent economy.

Painting a grim picture, the Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation forecast monsoon rains in June to be 34 percent below normal, reversing its earlier forecast of 22 percent excess rainfall in the month.

It maintained its earlier prediction for rains in July, a crucial month for sowing of winter crops, at 12 percent below normal.

The June-September rains are closely watched in India as two-thirds of the billion-plus population earn a living from agriculture, which generates about a quarter of gross domestic product.
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