Non OPEC-12 Oil Production Peaked in 2004

Non OPEC-12 oil production peaked in 2004 at 46.8 million barrels/day (mbd) shown in the chart below. This oil definition includes crude oil, lease condensate, oil sands and natural gas plant liquids. If natural gas plant liquids are excluded, then the production peak remains in 2004 but decreases to 42.1 mbd.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) should make official statements about declining non OPEC-12 oil production to renew the focus on oil conservation and alternative energy sources.
Non OPEC-12 Total Liquids Production

The definition of oil used by the International Energy Agency (IEA) includes bio-fuels, processing gains and other liquids derived from natural gas and coal. While the IEA warned in July of last year that non OPEC-13 total liquids could peak in 2010, it now appears that non OPEC-12 total liquids peaked in 2007. Total liquids production in 2008 was slightly lower than 2007 due to Gulf of Mexico hurricanes and production outages in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Unfortunately, Azerbaijan forecasts its oil production to grow by 2% or only 0.02 mbd in 2009 over 2008 due to oil field production problems and lower oil prices. Similarly, Kazakhstan’s 2009 production forecast has been revised downwards to growth of only 0.07 mbd, representing a 5% increase over 2008 production.

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