Tom Whipple – The Peak Oil Crisis: Leadership

A year or so ago, the world was consuming some 31 billion barrels of oil and oil-like liquids annually. Even if the current economic troubles cut this to 28 billion, or 25 billion or 20 billion, we will still be going through our hydrocarbon heritage at a prodigious rate. At some point a decline in world oil production for geologic reasons (a euphemism for running out) is inevitable. The decline may be delayed for a few years by a recession-induced drop in demand, but it is as inevitable as the sunrise. New supplies of expensive crude are costing $90 or $100 a barrel to produce and bring to market. It is doubtful that even a deep depression will bring down the costs of new production below economy-wrecking levels. It seems even more likely that at some point an inflationary spiral will be set off by our massive deficit spending so that even worse things are going to happen.

There are many things that governments can do to slow or mitigate what is going to come, but for the time being, most are political poison. Heavy taxes on energy and emissions, mandatory car pools, lower speed limits, forced weatherization are simply yet politically possible as so few understand the problem. Tax cuts currently believed by some as the panacea for nearly everything will win out every time over wrenching government-mandated lifestyle changes until things get a lot worse.

So what is the responsible course for a candidate or politician that is ahead of public in understanding the problem, who sees that there are life altering troubles ahead, and wants to do the right thing for the grandchildren? Tell it like it is and you will be outside looking in after the election, or tell the voter what the polls say they want to hear – a few well placed tax cuts and the American dream, SUVs and all, will come roaring back in full force.

Falls Church News-Press