Merrill Lynch: Non-OPEC oil production may have peaked

Merrill Lynch on Tuesday said that crude oil production from non-OPEC nations may have already peaked, nothing that oil production decline rates were a function of investment rates, as well as the size and age of oil fields. ‘All these factors point to steeper oil output declines going forward,’ the firm wrote.

The International Energy Agency expects an increase in non-OPEC output of 51 million barrels per day over the next seven years, the firm said, while it sees production in the range of 49 million to 50 million barrels a day in the same period.

Forbes

Has non-OPEC oil production peaked?

INTERNATIONAL. A research paper out today from Merrill Lynch says the combination of low oil prices and a global credit crunch will prove rather damaging for the oil industry. Its analysis based on the IEA Field by Field Production database finds decline rates at an average of 4.2% per annum since 2003.

Extrapolating from this sample to create a global production profile, the bank believes the global decline rate has averaged at least 4.5% year on year in recent years. These rates, however, could accelerate further over the next few years, according to Francisco Blanch, Head of Global Commodities Research and lead author of the report. Furthermore non-OPEC crude oil production may have already peaked.

Business Intelligence Middle East