Winners and losers of the oil crash

Until the middle of last year, a sharp rise in oil prices figured among the most important developing stories in global politics. Many analysts expected high economic growth to continue for the foreseeable future — particularly in leading emerging markets such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil — enriching and empowering the governments of countries with oil to sell, and generating anxiety among consumers about longer-term access to supply. In July 2008, oil sold at $147 per barrel.

Fast-forward six months. On Jan. 7, oil closed at $42.63. The steep price drop flows in no small part, of course, from the global financial turmoil now dominating the headlines — a meltdown that weighs on economic growth and sharply reduces demand for oil and other key commodities. Oil market players are now more worried about the resilience of demand than security of supply.


In the new industrial and geopolitical environment, speculation has intensified over which countries and energy players are best positioned to weather the downturn — and which ones are more likely to suffer. In other words, who will be the winners and losers? Here are a few answers you might not expect.

Foreign Policy