New realities in the Strait of Hormuz

WASHINGTON – For decades, one of the reliable nightmare scenarios for the world has been the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In the Cold War era those charged with coming up with worst-case scenarios would conjure up a southward push by the Soviet Union to seize control of Persian Gulf oil fields and restrict the export of oil through the Gulf. In more recent years that threat was transferred to Iraq and Iran.

…The conventional American military wisdom has always been that if a country attempted to mine the strait it might cause some short-term disruption, but that US naval assets would clear it in relatively short order.

But a new analysis suggests that the reality is actually more complicated and less sanguine than conventional wisdom suggests. It finds, “The notion that Iran could truly blockade the strait is wrong – but so too is the notion that US operations in response to any Iranian action in the area would be short and simple.”

…Projections based on past instances of US mine-clearing operations indicate that it could take a month or more to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if Iran were allowed to initiate even a small mine-laying campaign.

Even worse, if the US decided to clear the strait of mines, the potential for further military escalation would be high. In part, this is because United States’ mine warfare assets are designed to be used only in non-threatening environments.

Thus, the US would want to locate and destroy any sources of Iranian attack on its mine countermeasure (MCM) ships. Specifically, it would want to eliminate Iran’s land-based, anti-ship cruise missile batteries. The aerial hunt for these assets could add days, weeks, or even months to the time needed to clear the strait, and quickly develop into a large and sustained air and naval campaign.

Even if the strait were not closed during such a campaign, military conflict in the area could cause prices to skyrocket in anticipation of a supply disruption, and to remain high until markets could be assured that the flow of commerce had been restored.

Asia Times