NASA’s latest analysis shouldn’t cheer anyone

NASA’s latest analysis of the intersection of peak oil and climate change argues that oil and natural gas alone probably won’t get us to 450ppm. If we can constrain our use of coal fairly quickly, we probably can avoid the worst outcomes — unless of course, the impact of reduced global dimming or methane from melting permafrost gets us. Still, it all sounds rather hopeful.

What are the chances that we’re going to constrain our use of coal, so that we can avoid this tipping point? So far, the world is engaged in a massive build-out of coal infrastructure, that has been only slightly, if at all, constrained by environmental awareness. Despite Al Gore’s call for 100 percent renewable electricity, the general path seems to be toward more coal usage, not less.

Electric space heaters, powered by coal-fired electricity, are likely to be the saviors of many freezing households. Instead of getting closer to Gore’s goal, increasing gas prices drive customers off of comparatively cleaner fuels and on to coal fired electricity. The actual number of generating sources required to get anywhere even remotely near 100 percent renewable energy and meet demand is rising faster than the capacity for renewable energy generation.

Will customers care enough about climate to change to bear being cold in the winter and hot in the summer? Will they tolerate rising electric costs without demanding more cheaper coal? Will the preponderance of our populace democratically choose to accept less energy, and its matching lower economic growth for the good of the world? And will China, India, and other nations do so? It is not impossible, but we didn’t do it when oil and natural gas were plentiful. It is about to get much harder to do these things.

Grist