Hurricane Ike and Oil Refineries / Infrastructure Thread #2

Hurricane Ike’s current track predicts landfall in central Texas. Any further model tracks north bring it close to large refining areas – just to the east of the current swath (graphed below) is 5 million bpd in refining capacity. (Perspective: 5 MMBBL is about 30% of US capacity (about 15 MMBBL), and a bit less than 6% of global capacity (~85 MMBBL). New updates (09:45 EDT) and graphs below the fold:


…Here is the latest update from Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF 10Sep 09:40 EDT.

Ike’s track continues to move slowly northwestward, and while organization is fair, it has apparently not started rapid intensification as of 9am. On the current track the storm will skirt south of the key Gulf of Mexico (GoM) infrastructure. However, it is vital to understand that very slight wobbles – even 10-20 miles – can make a huge difference in damage. Remember that swath of heavy damage for most hurricanes, even intense ones, is only 50-75 miles wide. Also recall that damage is exponential – 110 mph winds may be 10% higher than 100 mph winds, but will cause 20% more damage.

The Oil Drum