Energy Price Prediction `More Difficult,’ EIA’s Caruso Says

(Bloomberg) — Predicting energy prices is “more difficult” now because of the lack of sufficient information from emerging economies, the head of the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

“No one could’ve predicted” recent record energy prices, Guy Caruso, administrator of the agency, said today at a press conference in Washington sponsored by Platts. Caruso, 66, announced earlier this month that he will step down on Sept. 3 as head of the agency, which is the statistical arm of the Energy Department.


Crude-oil futures prices reached a record $147.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on July 11. Members of Congress have asked the agency to review its modeling system, saying forecasts have been “dramatically lower” than current prices.

The agency currently forecasts oil prices will be between $120 and $130 a barrel for the rest of the year. According to the agency’s annual energy outlook, prices will fall to a low of $57 a barrel in 2016 and then reach about $70 in 2030.

Caruso said he “certainly can understand the frustrations reflected by the criticism” of the agency’s price forecasts.

“No one could’ve predicted all of these events on the political side or even the kind of economic growth that the emerging economies have achieved,” he said.

Bloomberg