May 2008 EIA Oil Production Record. Will it Too be Revised Downward?

Yesterday, August 6, the EIA published new International Petroleum Monthly data. The new data revised downward previously published estimates, all the way back to 2002, with the biggest revisions in 2007 and 2008. With the revisions, the latest month, May 2008, shows new record-high oil production. Other recent months which had previously set records are now 67,000 barrels per day to 417,000 barrels per day lower than reported just a month ago. In this post, I offer a few thoughts on what the new data suggests.

How Frequent are EIA Data Revisions?

Khebab did an analysis of EIA data revisions back in October 2006. His analysis showed that at that time, crude estimates on average were revised down by about 300,000 barrels from their initial estimate. The downward revision took about three years. Estimates of other liquids tended to get revised upward over time. On a “total liquids” basis, one might expect some offset, since part is being adjusted upward and part downward.

The Oil Drum