Energy Prophets: U.S. Oil Dependence

In a 1995 ORNL report, “The Outlook for U.S. Oil Dependence,” Don Jones, Paul Leiby, and I simulated the impact of a two-year supply shock similar to those that occurred in 1973-74 and 1979-80, but starting in 2005 and ending in 2006. The model predicted that the shock would cause oil prices to jump from $20/bbl in 2004 to $50/bbl in 2005, costing the U.S. economy an estimated half a trillion dollars.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory Review