My Turn: Life after oil

Humanity is sitting on a railroad track, and a train is speeding toward us. The name of that train is global oil shortages. But, let’s start at the beginning.

Oil was discovered in 1859 in the United States. However, we did not appreciate its many uses, so production and consumption began slowly. During the years between World War I and World War II we learned of its many uses, but only in the last few decades have we built our dependency on oil. Now, all our clothes, food, transportation, construction depend on petrochemicals. As the oil production/consumption line has risen, the food production line has followed and also the global population line.


Some say that the world has reached the point where the oil production/consumption line has begun to descend. Other say peak oil is expected around 2020. Either way, we shall not run out of oil for 80 to 120 years. The bad news is that in 40 to 50 years the OPEC nations may start to hoard oil so they can maintain their own affluent standards of living. Their curtailment of oil exports to the non-OPEC nations would cause us to ration oil, just as we did during World War II.

So, this could be our scenario in 40 years: No more airlines, space program, bulldozers, tractor trailers, big farm tractors, yellow school buses, interschool athletics, union schools. More one-room schools, small farms, a steady state, a growing global economy. Railroads and ships, fueled by coal and uranium, might replace trucking and airplanes. As during World War II, farmers could receive most fuel to maintain food production.

Burlington Free Press