Ireland: Teagasc 2030 Foresight conference

Teagasc used five different scenarios as the basis for its 2030 Foresight study. Although these five ideas are not predictions of the future, they are possible fictional ‘futures’ that may arise, based upon expert judgment. The process involved elements of imagination and creativity, but drew on available forecasts and predictions based in reality.

… Scenario 3: Energy squeeze fuels agriculture

In 2030, we are in the post-peak oil era with conventional oil production declining steadily. The Chinese and Indian economic superpowers have accelerated the increase in global energy demand. Oil prices fluctuate at around $300 per barrel.

Agriculture is now centre stage in terms of global food and energy security.

With rising feed costs, grass-based Irish dairy farming has become more competitive. The number of dairy farmers has declined substantially, but cow numbers and milk solids output per cow have increased markedly. Tillage production has increased significantly to supply the home animal feed market, the food and drinks sector and to produce renewable energy and raw materials for the bio-industry sector.

The forestry/biomass sector has expanded rapidly. A well organised bio-energy supply chain and processing infrastructure has emerged.

Irish Independent