An oil savior? – Iraq has the potential to supply much more oil

Iraq’s deputy prime minister, Barham Salih, said in April that Iraq’s total reserves, could be as high as 350 billion barrels, triple the 115 billion that has been its officially stated level for many years. The figure is aspirational and should be treated carefully but, given that there has been barely any new exploration of Iraq’s promising geology in 30 years, an upward revision of the official reserves figure seems long overdue. This underlines Iraq’s uniquely large reserves-to-production (RP) ratio, which was already the world’s highest and, based on Salih’s estimate and at the expected production level of 2.3 million bpd in 2008, would stand at a remarkable 415 years (compared with a world average of about 40 years).
If Iraq were able to achieve the average Middle East RP-ratio of 80 years then it would be pumping 4 million bpd based on the current reserves, and 12 million bpd based on Salih’s estimate. Getting there would take some time, around five years for 4 million bpd and probably more than 20 years for the most optimistic level. It would also require Iraq to achieve a sufficient degree of stability. However, if there are promising signs of progress over the next 18 months, then it might be enough to mitigate fears of shortages next decade and dampen the futures market.

Tehran Times